Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston area.

Increasing winds across most of Texas will continue to pump moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico as higher density smoke advects out of Mexico, covering a large portion of the state this morning, however, an upper tough in southern California is causing much of the smoke to remain aloft, particularly in the northern half. Meanwhile, breezy to gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours in New Mexico and west Texas could kick up of areas of patchy blowing dust, but the density and duration are not expected to sustain elevated PM2.5 concentrations for an extended period. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to top out in the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and El Paso areas the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate to strong winds, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

A relatively strong surface boundary will move into the western third of the state by Friday morning as gusty winds persist during the afternoon and evening hours in central/eastern New Mexico as well as the Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West regions. Suspended dust kicked up the previous day combined with additional areas of patchy blowing dust could result in periods of elevated fine particulate matter across the aforementioned regions. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range as well.

Higher density smoke and/or aerosols are forecast to advect across most of the eastern two thirds of Texas as seasonal burnings and industrial activity rages on in southern Mexico, Central America, and the Bay of Campeche. With copious amounts of moisture likely across most of the areas affected areas, elevated fine particulate matter concentrations are likely to become widespread. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Houston areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

A secondary trough will make it to the Four Corners region by around midday Saturday, sustaining windy conditions across most of New Mexico and portions of the western third of Texas. Dry soils could provide perfect conditions for several areas of blowing dust, with transported dust out of New Mexico possibly combining with localized sources in the Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West regions - keeping fine particulate matter elevated. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, the lower end of "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend areas.

The cold front will gradually lift northward as the trough moves out of the area, meaning southerly winds will continue to transport moisture and possibly smoke/aerosols into the eastern two thirds of the state. High relative humidity juxtaposed with persistent light to moderate density smoke could keep fine particulate matter elevated in most areas. The daily PM2.5 AQI could remain in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of Bryan-College Station area, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco Killeen areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas.

The aforementioned front will slowly traverse eastward Sunday as moisture remains abundant in the eastern half of Texas. While advection of light to moderate residual smoke out of Mexico will likely continue, breezy winds and scattered showers/thunderstorms in the Central, North Central and Northeast regions could provide sufficient pollutant dispersion, keeping PM2.5 concentrations mostly tempered. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Stable atmospheric conditions combined with lingering surface pollutants from the previous say in Far West could keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.