Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso, Laredo, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Corpus Christi, and Lubbock areas.

A cold front will make its way from the North Central part of the state this morning extending from the Permian Basin to the Northeast region before arriving in South-Central Texas this afternoon/evening. Light to moderate residual smoke was observed over Deep South Texas and along the coast with thinner density smoke extending into portions of South-Central Texas. Southerly winds ahead of the front will continue advecting residual smoke and high relative humidity into the eastern half of Texas, with northerly winds behind the front assisting in pollutant and moisture convergence near the boundary. Meanwhile, pollutant carryover from the previous day, light winds, and the approaching surface front has enhanced fine particulate concentrations across the eastern two thirds of Texas and are expected to keep most of the affected areas in the "Moderate" to "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" ranges throughout most of the day, although concentrations in the "Unhealthy" range will be possible at times. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range or possibly higher in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas, the middle end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Houston and Laredo areas, the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Light morning winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day in Far West Texas could result in the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQI netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, El Paso, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

High pressure moving in behind the exiting cold front will increase northerly winds across most of Texas. Relative humidity levels will quickly retreat toward the Gulf of Mexico however, model guidance suggests the residual smoke that has been affecting the state the last several days will advect more slowly. Fine particulate matter could remain elevated across the Central and North Central regions, but the highest concentrations could mostly be observed in the South Central, Deep South, and coastal regions. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas, the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Very light residual smoke combined with pollutant carryover from the previous day in Far West could result in the daily PM2.5 AQI netting out in the upper end of the "Good" range.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area, the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, El Paso, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Residual smoke transported out of Mexico will slowly retreat from the eastern two thirds of Texas as high-pressure builds, however due to changes in wind direction model guidance suggests increasing coverage of light smoke across the western third of the state. Relatively high humidity, especially compared to values typically seen in this part of Texas, could facilitate fine particulate formation in portions of the southern Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West Texas. The daily PM2.5 AQI could increase into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. Urban haze because of light to moderate winds in the eastern two thirds of the state could slightly increase fine particulate matter, particularly farther south and along the coast where relative humidity is forecast to remain rather high. Additionally, while most of the residual smoke will be transported south into northern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, light density smoke could continue to affect portions of the Rio Grande Valley. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast net out in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas, the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Lubbock, and San Antonio areas.

Low pressure moving eastward from New Mexico will facilitate increasing relative humidity as winds turn more out of the south and east across the eastern two thirds of the state. Residual smoke will make a more gradual return to these areas; however, elevated fine particulate concentrations are forecast to increase in coverage from the Deep South and coastal bend into the South Central and Southeast regions. Additionally, light to moderate winds in the North Central and East regions could increase the effects of urban haze and therefore PM2.5 concentrations. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to increase into the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere across the state, moderate winds, mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range for most areas.