Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light morning winds and elevated relative humidity will be the primary contributors of elevated fine particulate matter across the eastern two thirds of the state. Depending on the wildfire activity in Canada light residual smoke could affect the extreme eastern portion of Texas, in addition to a few scattered wildfires in East Texas and West Louisiana, but a majority of it will likely remain aloft. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds may slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter at times in far West Texas, but precipitation and vertical mixing are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Depending on the wildfire activity in Canada, very light residual smoke could continue affecting the eastern portion of Texas, however it is expected to remain mostly aloft with limited effects at the surface. Meanwhile, the leading edge of a plume of Saharan dust is forecast to reach the deep South region by around late morning/midday, possibly reaching South Central Texas by the mid to late evening hours. The juxtaposition with rich Gulf moisture is expected to result in a noticeable increase in fine particulate concentrations across the affected regions. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day could slightly elevate fine particulate levels in far West Texas but the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The leading edge of the Saharan dust plume will push into portions of the Permian Basin and South Plains as slightly higher density dust is gradually transported farther northward into the eastern half of the state. Additionally, with elevated relative humidity also persisting in most of the affected regions, higher fine particulate concentrations will become more ubiquitous as the plume increases in coverage. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, and San Antonio areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas and the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas as well.

Very light winds will continue to be a source for slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, and when combined with limited vertical mixing could increase the PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs into the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas.

The plume of Saharan dust is forecast to cover most of the eastern half of the state with the highest concentrations expected to be in deep South, Southeast, and South Central Texas. Moisture advection out of the Gulf will keep fine particulate concentrations elevated as well, as southerly winds persist ahead of a cold front pushing southward out of the Central Plains. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, and San Antonio areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas and the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas as well.

Chances for precipitation and vertical mixing could somewhat temper fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas but the overall daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas.

A higher density portion of the Saharan dust plume will move into deep South and Southeast Texas and will advect into the South Central and East regions during the afternoon and evening hours. Very light amounts of dust could travel as far as the Texas Panhandle, but precipitation associated with a cold front is anticipated to keep any effects on fine particulate concentrations minimal. Elevated relative humidity will also continue but model guidance suggests moisture will somewhat retreat south and eastward. Additionally, lighter winds across North Central and Northeast Texas could modestly increase the effects of urban fine particulate matter. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas and the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day in far West Texas could increase the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.