Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Persistent elevated relative humidity levels and/or light morning winds across the eastern two-thirds of the state may continue to promote fine particulate formation and slightly raise PM2.5 background levels, especially over the more populated areas. Meanwhile, remnant smoke from burning across southern Mexico and Central America over the past few days, coupled with aerosol emissions from gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico, has resulted in a layer of light-density smoke and aerosols spread into portions of deep South Texas and Central Texas, possibly spreading into the Coastal Plains later in the day. Isolated showers may persist across parts of Central and Northeast Texas may help washout some of these aerosols. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds across portions of far West Texas and the northern Mexico state of Chihuahua could generate and transport patchy blowing dust into and through parts of the region. The gusty winds may also generate some patchy blowing dust through portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains as well. The intensity and duration of the blowing dust may be enough to raise the daily PM10 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas as well.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The elevated relative humidity levels and/or light morning winds are forecast to persist across the eastern two-thirds of the state and may continue to promote fine particulate formation, slightly raising PM2.5 background levels, especially over the more populated areas. Meanwhile, should the burning, industrial, and gas flaring activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche continue, the possible light density remnant smoke and aerosols may linger and expand over portions of deep South Texas, South Central Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the lower Rio Grande Valley. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Possible lingering suspended blowing dust generated the previous day over far West Texas will combine with additional areas of blowing dust generated over the region, as well as dust transported out of the northern Mexico state of Chihuahua. Additionally, gusty and dry conditions could spread patchy blowing dust into portions of the Panhandle and South Plains as well. Depending on the coverage and intensity of the suspended dust, the daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area while the PM2.5 AQI reaches the upper end of the "Moderate" range. The daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas as well.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend area.

An upper-level trough will move into West Texas on Wednesday as a dryline pushes east of the Permian Basin. Depending on the burning, industrial, and gas flaring activity in central/southern Mexico and Bay of Campeche, light density smoke and aerosols could linger over portions of South/South Central Texas as well as along the Coastal Plains of Texas. Light evening winds combined with persistent elevated relative humidity could be conducive for urban fine particulate formation in the more populated areas, particularly when juxtaposed with the smoke and aerosols. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds and lingering suspended dust from the previous days could sustain slightly elevated fine particulate matter in far West Texas. However, a passing front will advect drier air into the region and make conditions less conducive for fine particulate formation, resulting in the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs dropping into the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The dryline will remain mostly stationary near the Permian Basin as a broad trough also stays over the western part of the country. Southerly winds will prevail as rich moisture is transported northward, eventually pushing farther westward into the Permian Basin as the dryline retreats. Light morning winds could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas, but breezy afternoon and evening winds will limit the effects. Light smoke and aerosols could continue affecting portions of South/South Central Texas as well as the Coastal Plains as burning and industrial activity is expected to persist in southern and central Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds in far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter as limited vertical mixing increases pollutant build-up, and could push the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.