Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A weak cold front will move through Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas during the morning hours and potentially stall just offshore. Small, scattered burning activities across portions of the Central Plains and eastern two-thirds of Texas are expected to continue producing light density residual smoke that light northerly winds are forecast to transport and recirculate over portions of these regions of the state. Combined with urban fine particulate matter along with slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels attributed to Gulf moisture, the PM2.5 levels are forecast to remain slightly elevated. Meanwhile, some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols associated with the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche are expected to begin to be steered southward out of the state and over the Gulf. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas as well.

Light daytime winds and an overnight temperature inversion over far West Texas are expected to limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface, slightly enhancing urban fine particulate pollution. These conditions are forecast to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Amarillo, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The small, scattered burning activities across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern two-thirds of Texas are expected to continue. Light easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast to steer some of the light density residual smoke aerosols along with urban fine particulate matter and patchy morning fog attributed to slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels from Gulf moisture over these regions of Texas and keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated. Meanwhile, southerly winds are forecast to steer some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols attributed to burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche back over portions of deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of Houston area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Persistent light daytime winds and another overnight temperature inversion over far West Texas are expected to limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface, slightly enhancing urban fine particulate matter. These conditions may be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Another cold front is forecast to move through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin during the day and slow down as it approaches South Central and North Central Texas later on in the evening and overnight. Depending on the amount of small, scattered burning activities across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern two-thirds of Texas, some of the light density residual smoke aerosols along with urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels are forecast to linger over portions of these regions of Texas and keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated. Gusty afternoon winds at times should help a little bit with the dispersion of these fine particulate aerosols however. Meanwhile, depending on the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche, southerly winds may continue steering some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols over deep South Texas and possibly over portions of the Coastal Plains. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds and an overnight temperature inversion, limiting vertical mixing, over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Model guidance suggests that the aforementioned cold front may stall around the Texas Hill Country region. Should the small, scattered burning activities across portions of the eastern two-thirds of Texas continue, some of the light density residual smoke aerosols combined with some light urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels may keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated over portions of these regions of Texas. Meanwhile, depending on the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche, southerly winds may continue steering some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels over portions of far West Texas owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

The aforementioned cold front may continue to remain stalled around the Texas Hill Country region. Should the small, scattered burning activities across portions of the eastern two-thirds of Texas continue, some of the light density residual smoke aerosols combined with some light urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels may keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated over portions of these regions of Texas. Gusty afternoon winds should help with some dispersion of these fine particulates. Meanwhile southerly winds may continue to steer light density residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols from potentially ongoing burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty afternoon through evening winds across portions of far West Texas may be enough to generate some suspended blowing dust. The intensity of the gusty winds however is not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range for most of the region, which includes the El Paso area.