Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Slightly elevated relative humidity has persisted this morning in the eastern two thirds of the state as a cold front currently extends through the Eastern Permian Basin. An area of light-density smoke, consisting of residual emissions from scattered fire activity and aerosols from urban and industrial sources, was observed stretching from the Gulf Coast of Mexico northward into deep South Texas as well as the southern coastal bend. While the smoke/aerosols juxtaposed with elevated relative humidity could keep conditions conducive for fine particulate formation, higher wind speeds associated with the advancing front could facilitate better pollutant dispersion and temper PM2.5 concentrations at times. Meanwhile, gusty winds behind the front could produce patchy blowing dust during the morning and early afternoon hours in portions of the South Plains and Permian Basin with additional areas of blowing dust possibly being transported eastward out of Southeast New Mexico. Additionally, a lighter density plume could be transported into portions of North Central Texas due to this activity as the front moves eastward. PM2.5 concentrations could spike into the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range at times; however the quick movement of the system is expected to preclude a longer and more significant dust event. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Laredo areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Low pressure will quickly develop in Northern New Mexico Friday morning as a dryline/cold front also sharpens across Central Texas, extending from the Southwest region through the Northeast region. Gusty westerly winds will increase west of the boundary as southerly winds persist to the east, sustaining moisture advection into South, South Central, Southeast, and East Texas. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in South and East Mexico, light density smoke/aerosols may continue to linger over portions of South, South Central, and Southeast Texas, and when combined with elevated relative humidity could keep conditions conducive for fine particulate formation. Urban fine particulate matter could remain elevated in Central and North Central Texas during the morning hours as light winds remain in place, but the increasing wind speeds behind the front will likely result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Meanwhile, gusty afternoon winds in the South Plains and Permian Basin could once again produce areas of patchy blowing dust and while PM2.5 levels could spike into the "Moderate" range at times, the coverage, density, and duration of this event are not expected to significantly increase the overall daily concentrations. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Forth Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Lingering smoke could be present in deep South Texas and along the coast, leftover from the burning activity that has been ongoing the last several days in Mexico, but the aforementioned cold front will quickly move off the coast of Texas by the mid-morning hours. While fine particulate levels could be slightly elevated initially, increasing northerly winds behind the boundary will transport any lingering smoke and moisture southward out of the state. Looking out to far West Texas, lighter winds could increase the build-up of urban fine particulate matter, occasionally elevating PM2.5 and PM10 levels into the "Moderate" range throughout the day. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain firmly in the "Good" range for most areas, however they could net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Weak high pressure will build as variable northerly surface flow spread through the eastern two thirds of Texas. Light to moderate winds could increase urban fine particulate concentrations at times but with relative humidity remaining low across the state, the most noticeable effects will likely be limited to the most populated regions. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI could increase to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds could elevate urban fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas as limited vertical mixing limits dispersion and promotes pollutant carryover from the previous day. As a result, the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could increase into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.