Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend and Houston areas.

The dryline will remain mostly stationary near the Permian Basin as a broad trough moves over the western part of the country. Southerly winds will prevail as rich moisture is transported northward, eventually pushing farther westward into the eastern Permian Basin as the dryline retreats. Local industrial activity in the Permian Basin is slightly increasing fine particulate concentrations and could be sustained as convergence occurs near the dryline. Light morning winds could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas, but breezy afternoon and evening winds could increase dispersion. Light smoke and aerosols are affecting portions of South/South Central Texas as well as the Coastal Plains as burning, gas flaring, and industrial activity persists in southern and central Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, and Bryan-College Station areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Light to moderate winds in far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter as limited vertical mixing increases pollutant build-up in far West Texas, possibly increasing the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

High relative humidity will persist in the eastern two thirds of the state as the dryline sharpens ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter Northwest Texas late Friday evening. Light density smoke and aerosols could linger across portions of South Texas and the Coastal Plains of Texas where the combination with rich moisture could keep fine particulate concentrations elevated. High relative humidity could be enough to sustain slightly elevated urban fine particulates in the more populated areas, however strengthening winds ahead of the incoming front could assist in pollutant dispersion. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds in the western third of the state could produce areas of blowing dust across portions of the Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, and far West Texas as well as transport plumes eastward from eastern New Mexico and northern Mexico. Depending on the timing of the cold front, the daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, the lower end of the "Moderate range in parts of the Lubbock and Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well. Additionally, PM2.5/PM10 concentrations could occasionally spike into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in far West Texas.

Moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Lingering smoke and aerosols could remain in portions of the deep South and coastal bend regions of Texas as gas flaring and other industrial activities persist in central and southern Mexico. Combined with high relative humidity, elevated fine particulate matter is expected ahead of the incoming cold front. Farther north, a large wind shift, promoting re-circulation, and pollutant convergence near the boundary could also keep PM2.5 concentrations elevated during the morning hours, but precipitation and vertical mixing associated with it will likely facilitate sufficient dispersion. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Lingering suspended dust kicked up the previous day could keep fine particulates slightly elevated at times in far West Texas, but dispersion associated with breezy winds are forecast to drop the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Cool temperatures, insufficient afternoon sunshine, scattered precipitation, and/or slightly lower incoming background levels should be enough for ozone to reach the stay well in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Northerly surface winds will gradually turn out of the east on Sunday as surface high pressure moves into the Central/South Plains. Light morning winds in Central and North Texas could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas at times but the lack of higher relative humidity will preclude more widespread increases in PM2.5 concentrations. Better moisture will remain in the deep South region, possibly sustaining elevated fine particulate matter but precipitation and mixing associated with the aforementioned cold front could promote dispersion in the affected areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty winds in far West Texas could produce areas of blowing dust during the morning and afternoon hours, although a chance for precipitation could limit the intensity and duration. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.