Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Ozone Action Days are in effect today for the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas. Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west side of the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas, the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) on the west side of the Austin and Houston areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Brownsville-McAllen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A large area of light density smoke has been observed emanating from wildfire activity in Southern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba, with the plume extending southward through the Central U.S. and into the eastern half of Texas. Additionally, scattered burnings in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeastern U.S. have also been producing plumes of light density smoke that have mixed with the smoke from Canada. Meanwhile, light density aerosols associated with continental haze will also mix with the aforementioned smoke as low pressure in the Central Plains sustains easterly surface winds. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas.

Light surface winds and a stable atmosphere could occasionally spike fine particulate levels into the "Moderate" range in far West Texas but the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in the majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light density smoke is forecast to remain over South, Central, and North Central Texas as well as portions of the Permian Basin and South Plains as the wildfires in Canada and the Pacific Northwest persist. Additional areas of light density smoke will also remain possible in East and North Central Texas as scattered burnings also continue in the East region, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast U.S., however the effects at the surface will be less significant compared to earlier in the week. Meanwhile, easterly winds in the eastern half of the state will support lingering effects of continental haze, the effects of which will also continue to diminish. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas.

Light morning winds and a change in wind direction that could possibly promote re-circulation in far West Texas will occasionally elevate urban particulate matter but the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to stay in the upper end of the "Good" range in the majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests light density smoke is forecast to linger over the eastern half of Texas as the wildfires in Canada and the Pacific Northwest persist. Additionally, scattered burnings across East/Southeast Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast U.S. will also produce light smoke and will combine with light aerosols as east/southeast winds advect it north and westward into East, Central, and North Central Texas. While fine particulate matter concentrations could occasionally be elevated, an incoming trough will increase vertical mixing, likely keeping most of these pollutants aloft, tempering PM2.5 and PM10 levels. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Very light winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in the majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Depending on the ongoing wildfires across Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and Southeast U.S., light density smoke could linger over portions of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas. Additional plumes of light residual smoke from burnings in East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley could affect the East and North Central regions, but model guidance suggests fine particulate concentrations will not be significantly increased. Meanwhile, light aerosols associated with continental haze could also remain over portions of Central, North Central, and East Texas but fine particulate levels are expected to be tempered. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and lingering urban fine particulate matter from the previous day in far West Texas are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in the majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light density smoke associated with the wildfires in Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and Southeast U.S., as well as the scattered burnings in East Texas and the Mississippi Valley could linger over portions of Central, North Central, and East Texas. Additionally, with east/northeast winds persisting, light aerosols from the advection of continental haze could also continue affecting these regions. However, a mid/upper-level low pressure system in the Western CONUS and attendant embedded impulses will increase vertical ascent across most of Texas, keeping most of the aforementioned pollutants aloft. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly increased wind speeds and better vertical mixing in far West Texas are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.