Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend and Dallas-Fort Worth areas.

A cold front is progressing southward over deep South Texas as northerly winds spread through the eastern two-thirds of the state. Slightly elevated relative humidity levels are lingering over portions of deep South Texas as well as along the coast as the frontal boundary is forecast to slow down and possibly stall along the coast. Light to moderate density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are also expected to continue filtering and lingering over the southern half of the state, with the higher concentrations over deep South Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen as well.

Light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing may promote re-circulation of the airmass over far West Texas and keep fine particulates slightly elevated; however according to the most recent fine particulate concentrations and based on newer model guidance, these conditions are only forecast to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the upper end of the "Good" range for most of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to slowly move over the Gulf as weak easterly to southerly winds will gradually return and are forecast to aid in transporting moisture from the Gulf farther northward over the eastern half of Texas again. Light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are forecast to filter over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and small portions of Southeast and South Central Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and limited vertical mixing combined with urban fine particulate build-up from the previous day over far West Texas could raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Newer model guidance suggests that light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Houston, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas.

A weak, upper-level disturbance is forecast to move over far West Texas, the Big Bend region, and Central Texas throughout the day as a cold front moves through the Texas Panhandle. While this system should provide slightly enhanced lift and vertical mixing, little impacts are expected as there is not much precipitation associated with this system. Depending on the amount of burning activities across Mexico and Central America, light density residual smoke and aerosols are forecast to continue filtering and lingering over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, Southeast and South Central Texas, as well as parts of North Central and Northeast Texas. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state are forecast to slightly contribute towards raising fine particulate matter, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds combined with urban fine particulate carry-over from the previous day over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the Houston area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, and Laredo areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress southward and move through the South Plains, the Permian Basin, and parts of North Central Texas, accompanied by gusty northerly winds. Elevated relative humidity levels out ahead of the front along with light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds, limited morning vertical mixing, along with some light urban fine particulate carry-over from the previous day over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.