Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Low pressure is quickly moving eastward out of Northern New Mexico this morning as a cold front across Central Texas continues to sharpen. Gusty westerly winds will increase in the western third of the state as southerly winds persist to the east, sustaining moisture advection into South, South Central, Southeast, and East Texas. Burning and industrial activity in Mexico is producing light density smoke/aerosols that are lingering over deep South Texas but the southerly winds could transport it into South Central and Southeast Texas later in the day. Urban fine particulate matter could remain elevated in Central and North Central Texas during the morning hours as light winds remain in place, but the increasing wind speeds behind the front will likely result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Meanwhile, gusty afternoon winds in the South Plains and Permian Basin could produce areas of patchy blowing dust during the afternoon hours, and while PM2.5 levels could spike into the "Moderate" range at times, the coverage, density, and duration of this event are not expected to significantly increase the overall daily concentrations. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas as well.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Lingering smoke could be present in deep South Texas and along the coast, leftover from the burning activity that has been ongoing the last several days in Mexico, but the aforementioned cold front will quickly move off the coast of Texas by the mid-morning hours. While fine particulate levels could be slightly elevated initially, increasing northerly winds behind the boundary will transport any lingering smoke and moisture southward out of the state. Looking out to far West Texas, lighter winds could increase the build-up of urban fine particulate matter, occasionally elevating PM2.5 and PM10 levels into the "Moderate" range throughout the day. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain firmly in the "Good" range for most areas, however they could net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Weak high pressure will build as variable northerly surface flow spread through the eastern two thirds of Texas. Light to moderate winds could increase urban fine particulate concentrations at times but with relative humidity remaining low across the state, the most noticeable effects will likely be limited to the most populated regions. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI could net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds could elevate urban fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas as limited vertical mixing limits dispersion and promotes pollutant carryover from the previous day. As a result, the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Light variable winds will continue across most of Texas as weak high pressure remains in place. Build-up of urban fine particulate matter could affect some regions in the eastern two thirds of the state but the lack of higher relative humidity will keep the most noticeable effects limited to the most populated areas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI could increase to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Very light winds could elevate urban fine particulates in far West Texas as limited vertical mixing also inhibits pollutant dispersion, with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs increasing to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The high-pressure center will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday morning and will gradually turn winds out of the south/southeast in the eastern half of the state. Relatively weak wind speeds could sustain urban fine particulate matter as the primary pollutant source and while moisture advection of the Gulf will slowly increase, conditions will remain mostly dry in a majority of Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI could increase to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Calm winds will remain in place in far West Texas and when combined with stable atmospheric conditions that will limit dispersion, the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.