Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Breezy southerly winds have continued to advect moisture out of the Gulf into the eastern two thirds of Texas ahead of a dry line that is extending from the Panhandle through the Permian Basin. Smoke from widespread fire activity, remnant smoke from previous days, and aerosol emissions from gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico concentrated into a layer of light density smoke that is affecting South, Central, Southeast, and East Texas. Additionally, a few burnings in East/Southeast Texas could also produce isolated plumes of light density smoke that affect these regions as well as the areas immediately downwind. While the combination of high relative humidity and residual smoke could result in elevated fine particulate matter, the breezy winds as well as scattered precipitation could provide sufficient dispersion that precludes more widespread coverage. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Suspended dust kicked up the previous day could sustain slightly elevated fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas in addition to occasional patchy blowing dust with any stronger wind gusts this afternoon. Stronger winds in the South Plains and northern Permian Basin could result in patchy blowing dust this afternoon and evening as well. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

A cold front is forecast to reach Central Texas Saturday morning with southerly winds continuing to advect moisture out of the Gulf near and ahead of the boundary. Depending on the gas flaring and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosol emissions will likely continue to be transported into portions of South and Southeast Texas as well as South Central Texas. While the combination of high relative humidity and smoke could keep fine particulate matter elevated in the affected regions, vertical mixing, widespread precipitation, and breezy winds associated with the front is expected to provide sufficient dispersion, particularly in Central and South-Central Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty winds in far West Texas could produce occasional areas of patchy blowing dust but the coverage and duration are not expected to raise the PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Depending on the gas flaring and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, light smoke and aerosols could continue affecting portions of deep South Texas and the coastal bend of Texas. The aforementioned front is forecast to stall across the former as moisture is transported northward ahead of the boundary and will facilitate fine particulate formation, but precipitation associated with the front will mitigate these effects in Central, East, and Southeast Texas. Meanwhile, lighter winds in North Central and Northeast Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter but drier air due to northerly winds and precipitation washing out pollutants the previous day will keep PM2.5 levels only slightly elevated. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds could sustain occasional slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter, but breezy winds from the previous day combined with sufficient dispersion on Sunday, the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the region, which includes the city of El Paso.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Southerly winds will return to Texas on Monday after the cold front exits the state, with high relative humidity once again spreading farther north and westward. Light density smoke and aerosols emanating from the ongoing burning and industrial activity in Mexico could remain in the South and coastal regions of Texas but could also increase in coverage northward as well. Additionally, light morning winds could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas. That said, mid-level disturbances lifting out of the Southwest CONUS will keep scattered precipitation possible in most areas, limiting the effects on fine particulate concentrations. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds in far West Texas may keep urban fine particulate matter slightly elevated at times, but increasing winds combined with vertical mixing and a chance for precipitation are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the region, which includes the city of El Paso.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

High relative humidity will continue affecting the eastern two thirds of Texas on Tuesday due to southerly winds transporting moisture out of the Gulf. Lingering smoke and/or aerosols may keep fine particulate concentrations slightly elevated earlier in the day in Central and North Central Texas, but an advancing cold front will spread showers and thunderstorms across most of the state as the day progresses. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty winds behind a cold front in the western third of Texas could potentially produce patchy blowing dust across portions of the Panhandle, Permian Basin, and far West regions of Texas, however the coverage, density, and duration are not expected to increase the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.