Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Ozone Action Days are in effect today for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas. Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in the central regions and on the east sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Lubbock, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Bryan-College Station areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The plume of wildfire smoke from the burning activities in Oregon, Washington and Canadian Northwest Territories as well as southern British Columbia is lingering over the entire state with the denser portions over North Central Texas and the Texas Panhandle; although most of the denser smoke looks to be remaining mostly aloft. Numerous wildfires in the western CONUS, including the Widemouth 2 Fire in central Utah, are producing moderate to heavy density smoke that has moved southeastward and combined with the smoke from the Canada fires. Meanwhile, very light density residual smoke associated with possibly ongoing small, scattered burning activities across parts of eastern Texas, combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels associated with light daytime winds and/or slightly elevated relative humidity levels, may continue to contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of the surrounding areas. Oil and gas activities across the Permian Basin may continue producing light density residual smoke and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels across parts of the region as well. The light density plume of Saharan dust may continue moving inland over deep South Texas and expand over the Coastal Plains and lower Rio Grande Valley region too, slightly contributing towards raising fine particulate matter over these regions too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI might reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas as well.

Light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights, limiting local dispersion of urban fine particulate matter, as well as possible lingering light density residual smoke from the wildfires to the north over portions of far West Texas are forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range as well.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect on Tuesday for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the north side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range on the north side of the Houston area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Lubbock, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend, and Bryan-College Station areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests the lightly dense plume of wildfire smoke from the burning activities in Oregon, Washington and Canadian Northwest Territories as well as southern British Columbia over most of the state will retreat northward as the smoke across the southern half of the state noticeably weakens and thins out. Depending on the fires in the western CONUS and Rocky Mountains, smoke could continue to combine with the smoke from fires in Canada and sustain the higher density smoke across the South Plains and North Central region of Texas. Meanwhile, very light density residual smoke associated with possibly ongoing small, scattered burning activities across parts of eastern Texas, combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels associated with light daytime winds and/or slightly elevated relative humidity levels, may continue to contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Oil and gas activities across the Permian Basin may continue producing light density residual smoke and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels across parts of the region as well. Model guidance suggests that the light density plume of Saharan dust may continue expanding north and westward over the state as well, slightly contributing towards raising fine particulate matter. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI might reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well.

Light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights, limiting local dispersion of urban fine particulate matter over portions of far West Texas, are forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the lower end of the "Moderate" range for parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Houston, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The wildfire smoke from the burning activities in Oregon, Washington and Canadian Northwest Territories as well as southern British Columbia will remain over most of the state as southerly winds continue to keep conditions conducive for fine particulate formation due to moisture advection out of the Gulf. Depending on the burnings in the western CONUS and Rocky Mountains, residual smoke could contribute to the plume associated with the Canadian fires, although the density of the smoke over the southern half of Texas is forecast remain very light compared to smoke in the Northwest and North Central regions of Texas. Light density smoke from small, scattered burnings in eastern Texas could contribute to the plume but the effects will likely remain localized. Oil and gas activities across the Permian Basin may continue producing light density residual smoke and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels across parts of the region as well. The light density plume of Saharan dust will continue to expand north and westward, covering most of the state by the afternoon hours. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well.

Light to moderate winds, limited vertical mixing, and pollutant carryover from previous days in far West Texas are forecast to increase the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The wildfire smoke from the burning activities in Oregon, Washington and Canadian Northwest Territories as well as southern British Columbia will persist over most of Texas and could combine with the smoke associated with the burnings in the western CONUS and Rocky Mountains, with model guidance indicating the density of the smoke will increase in most regions. The Saharan dust plume will linger in the morning hours but will gradually disperse throughout the day. The oil and gas activities across the Permian Basin are once again expected to produce light density residual smoke, possibly elevating PM2.5 levels across parts of the region. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Similar conditions to yesterday in far West Texas as a stable atmosphere combined with light winds sustain elevated urban fine particulate matter, in addition to very light lingering Saharan dust will keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.