Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in the central region of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Big Bend, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Southerly winds will continue steering light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and parts of Southeast Texas, however newer model guidance suggests much of the smoke should remain aloft. Additionally, a light density plume of Saharan dust is continuing to filter over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains as well however the density of the dust should not significantly impact surface PM2.5 levels. Depending on the burning activity associated with the wildfire in Lincoln County, New Mexico as well as smaller wildfires south of Amarillo, light to moderate density residual smoke may continue to filter and expand over portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas, which combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter over the more populated areas, associated with light morning winds, are forecast to contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Thundershowers associated with a cold frontal boundary are forecast during the day across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state and should help wash out much of the fine particulates associated with residual smoke from ongoing burning activities across Mexico and Central America as well as the light density plume of Saharan dust, which model guidance suggests should weaken and dissipate over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas, which combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter over the more populated areas associated with light daytime winds, may contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas may be enough to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect on Sunday for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Newer model guidance suggests that light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the north side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Houston, and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to move through North Central and South Central Texas and approach Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains. Depending on the burning activities across Mexico and Central America, light density residual smoke may continue to filter over portions of deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas, which combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter over the more populated areas associated with light daytime winds, may contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels. Depending on thundershowers, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Big Bend, and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Northerly winds over the eastern two-thirds of the state associated with the passing of the aforementioned cold front are expected to steer light density residual smoke associated with potentially ongoing burning activities across Mexico and Central America out of the state and over the Gulf. Elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas, which combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter over the more populated areas associated with light daytime winds, may contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated afternoon and evening winds could generate and transport suspended fine particulates through portions of far West Texas, that depending on the intensity and duration of the gusty conditions, may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

Elevated relative humidity levels and/or light daytime winds over the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state may contribute slightly towards raising urban PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Big Bend, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.