Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light density plumes of residual smoke mainly from small agricultural burnings across portions of Louisiana, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas along with isolated small wildfires are lingering smoke over these regions. Meanwhile, light morning winds are expected to slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter over the eastern-two thirds of the state in addition to slightly increasing relative humidity levels possibly promoting fine particulate formation over deep South Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains. Additionally, industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to slightly elevate fine particulate levels at times attributed to light density smoke aerosols, however these fine particulates are not expected to sustain elevated PM2.5 levels. Some light density residual smoke from wildfires within Coconino and Sitgreaves National Forests in Arizona may filter over portions of the Texas Panhandle, however the aerosols are forecast to remain mostly aloft. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights, limiting pollutant dispersion, along with some light urban pollutant carryover from the previous day are expected to maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The small, scattered agricultural burnings along with isolated small wildfires across portions of Louisiana, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas are expected to continue producing light density residual smoke lingering over small parts of the aforementioned regions of Texas. Additionally, slightly increased urban fine particulate matter associated with a combination of light daytime winds and/or slightly elevated relative humidity levels may raise PM2.5 levels across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, especially in the more urban areas. Meanwhile, light density smoke aerosols attributed to industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to at times elevate fine particulate levels, however these fine particulates are not expected to sustain elevated PM2.5 levels. Also, the light density residual smoke from wildfires within Coconino and Sitgreaves National Forests in Arizona are forecast to continue filtering over portions of the Texas Panhandle as well as the Permian Basin, the South Plains, and far West Texas, however the aerosols are again forecast to remain mostly aloft. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds combined with limited vertical mixing, some light urban pollutant carryover from the previous days, and possibly some very light density residual smoke from the wildfires in Arizona may raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas.

Depending on the amount of agricultural burning activities across portions of Louisiana, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas along with the small isolated wildfires, model guidance suggests that light density residual smoke may linger primarily over small parts of the aforementioned regions of Texas. Additionally, slightly increased urban fine particulate matter associated with a combination of light daytime winds and/or slightly elevated relative humidity levels may raise PM2.5 levels across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, especially in the more urban areas. Meanwhile, light density smoke aerosols attributed to industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to at times elevate fine particulate levels, however these fine particulates are not expected to sustain elevated PM2.5 levels. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Midland-Odessa, and Victoria areas.

Light daytime winds combined with limited vertical mixing and some light urban pollutant carryover from the previous days may keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Moderate to breezy winds and lower incoming background levels should be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

A strong cold front will move through most of the state bringing breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. This will help with dispersion of aerosols attributed to both residual smoke from agricultural burning activities, wildfires, and urban fine particulate matter. The gusty early morning through late evening conditions over far West Texas however may be conducive to generate and transport patchy blowing dust over this region. While PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs may spike at times to the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" or even "Unhealthy" ranges at brief times, the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQI should net out in the middle of the "Moderate" range for most of the El Paso area and in the "Good" range elsewhere statewide.