Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Surface high-pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will influence the weather over Texas with light daytime winds for most areas as an upper-level disturbance brings scattered showers for the eastern two-thirds of the state. Urban fine particulate matter is forecast to be the primary pollutant source over portions of the more populated areas across the eastern two-thirds of the state while very light density smoke attributed to small burnings across parts of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas may affect some areas immediately downwind of these activities. While the scattered showers will help wash out some of the aerosols, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur area; and to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Calm winds will dominate over far West Texas and along with an overnight temperature inversion and limited dispersion of urban fine particulate matter, these conditions may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cool to warm temperatures, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A cold front accompanied with gusty winds for the eastern two-thirds of the state is forecast to move through most of the state with the exception of deep South Texas, where it will move over this region overnight into Thursday morning. Urban fine particulate matter and/or light density residual smoke associated with possible small burnings across parts of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas may converge along and ahead of the leading edge of the advancing cold front, resulting in increased particulate levels as the front approaches. The daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, and Houston areas and is forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Newer model guidance suggests that lighter morning winds over far West Texas and limited dispersion of urban fine particulate matter may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cool temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

High-pressure is forecast to move over the state following the passing of the aforementioned cold front accompanied by light daytime winds. Should small burning activities across parts of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas continue, light density residual smoke along with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter over the more populated areas across the eastern two-thirds of the state may raise PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range at times. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI however is forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and an overnight temperature inversion, limiting vertical mixing and local dispersion of aerosols, may raise PM2.5/PM10 levels to the "Moderate" range at times, however the overall daily AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Cool temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A second weaker cold front is forecast to move through the most of the state with the exception of deep South Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, the southern Rio Grande Valley. Urban fine particulate matter and/or light density residual smoke depending on the amount of small burnings across parts of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas, may converge along and ahead of the leading edge of the advancing cold front, resulting in slightly elevated particulate levels as the front approaches. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas and is forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light winds, an overnight temperature inversion, and limited vertical mixing could raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.