Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The plume of Saharan dust will continue moving north and westward, with the denser amounts over the Permian Basin and North Central Texas and the less dense amounts over the rest of the state. Meanwhile, light density residual smoke associated with on-going fire activities in Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, California, and New Mexico, as well as Canada continues to linger over most of the state, with denser amounts predominantly over portions of West and Northwest Texas, however these aerosols are expected to remain mostly aloft. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels will persist across the eastern two-thirds of the state and may contribute towards raising fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Laredo and Victoria areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Dallas-Fort Worth areas as well.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to light daytime winds and light to moderate density residual smoke from fires across parts of Southwest New Mexico could increase fine particulate matter across Far West Texas. Additionally, gusty overnight winds associated with convective outflow winds could produce areas of blowing dust in the region, resulting in occasional higher spikes of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations Friday night into Saturday morning. The combination could be enough to maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Model guidance suggests the plume of Saharan should disperse and weaken over the majority of the state with very little remaining over Texas. Meanwhile, the very light density plume of residual smoke associated with possibly on-going fire activities in California, New Mexico, as well as Canada may continue to linger predominantly over the northern half of the state, however these aerosols should remain mostly aloft. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to persist across the eastern two-thirds of the state and may contribute towards raising fine particulate matter too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Fine urban particulate levels associated with light morning winds and possibly light density residual smoke from fires across parts of Southwest New Mexico will be the primary drivers of elevated fine particulate matter in Far West Texas, however there will be the ongoing threat for sporadic areas of blowing dust throughout the day associated with convective outflow winds as well. The combination of these may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The plume of Saharan dust is expected to be completely dispersed as south/southeasterly winds persist across the eastern two thirds of the state. Very light residual smoke emanating from possibly on-going fire activities in California and New Mexico could affect portions of Far West Texas and western Permian Basin, but scattered precipitation and vertical mixing will likely keep any effects minimal. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity across the eastern two thirds of the state may continue contributing toward raising fine particulate matter, with lighter winds in North Central, Central, and East Texas also contributing toward increasing concentrations. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, but a lack of abundant afternoon sunshine, could be enough to keep ozone from reaching beyond the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Another plume of Saharan dust is forecast to breach the deep South coast late Monday morning as south/southeasterly winds continue across most of Texas. This dust will gradually push farther inland and increase in coverage, possibly reaching South Central Texas by the evening hours. Meanwhile, depending on the possibly on-going fire activities in California and New Mexico, very light to light residual smoke could affect portions of the Far West, Permian Basin, and Panhandle regions, although most of it is expected to stay aloft as scattered precipitation and vertical mixing provide sufficient dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Midland-Odessa, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas.

The plume of Saharan dust will continue to expand north and westward and is expected to reach the Permian Basin and North Central Texas by Tuesday morning, possibly spreading into the South Plains by Tuesday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, depending on the possibly on-going fire activities in California and New Mexico, very light residual smoke could continue to advect into Far West Texas, but vertical mixing and possible precipitation are expected to provide sufficient surface dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.