Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, light to moderate winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

An area of light-density smoke, consisting of residual emissions from scattered fire activity and aerosols from urban and industrial sources, was observed stretching from the Gulf Coast of Mexico to deep South Texas while also stretching along the coast of Texas as southerly winds persist ahead of a weak stationary front in Central Texas. Fine particulate matter will remain elevated in the aforementioned areas as relative humidity remains slightly elevated, keeping patchy fog possible in the South/South Central and coastal regions of Texas. Moisture advection will move northward as the front begins to turn into a warm front, slightly increasing moisture levels in Central, North Central, and East Texas, with elevated urban fine particulates expected as light winds affect these regions also. Meanwhile, a few scattered, small burnings across East and Southeast Texas have been observed producing light smoke in the immediate surrounding areas and downwind of the activity, but the limited coverage will not have significant, widespread effects on PM2.5 concentrations. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and San Antonio areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area as well.

Light to moderate morning winds in far West Texas could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter, keeping PM2.5/PM10 concentrations in the "Moderate" range, but increasing vertical mixing and likely precipitation associated with a passing front this afternoon could temper concentrations at times. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Slightly elevated relative humidity will persist in the eastern two thirds of the state during the morning hours as another cold front develops in the western third of Texas. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could affect the South and coastal regions of Texas, although the increasing southerly winds could push it farther inland into portions of the South-Central region. While the smoke/aerosols juxtaposed with elevated relative humidity could keep conditions conducive for fine particulate formation, higher wind speeds compared to earlier in the week could facilitate better pollutant dispersion and temper PM2.5 concentrations at times. Meanwhile, gusty winds behind the front could produce patchy blowing dust in portions of the Permian Basin with additional areas of blowing dust possibly being transported eastward out of Southeast New Mexico during the early afternoon hours. Additionally, a lighter density plume could be transported into portions of North Central Texas due to this activity as the front moves eastward. PM2.5 concentrations could spike into the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range at times, however the quick movement of the system is expected to preclude a longer and more significant dust event. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Laredo areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Corpus Christi, and San Antonio areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Cool to warm temperatures, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Low pressure will quickly develop in Northern New Mexico Friday morning as a dryline/cold front also sharpens across Central Texas, extending from the Southwest region through the Northeast region. Gusty westerly winds will increase west of the boundary as southerly winds persist to the east, sustaining moisture advection into South, South Central, Southeast, and East Texas. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in South and East Mexico, light density smoke/aerosols may continue to linger over portions of South, South Central, and Southeast Texas, and when combined with elevated relative humidity could keep conditions conducive for fine particulate formation. Urban fine particulate matter could remain elevated in Central and North Central Texas during the morning hours as light winds remain in place, but the increasing wind speeds behind the front will likely result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Lingering smoke could be present in deep South Texas and along the coast, leftover from the burning activity that has been ongoing the last several days in Mexico, but the aforementioned cold front will quickly move off the coast of Texas by the mid-morning hours. While fine particulate levels could be slightly elevated initially, increasing northerly winds behind the boundary will transport any lingering smoke and moisture southward out of the state. Looking out to far West Texas, lighter winds could increase the build-up of urban fine particulate matter, occasionally elevating PM2.5 and PM10 levels into the "Moderate" range throughout the day. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain firmly in the "Good" range for most areas, however they could net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.