Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Ozone Action Days are in effect today for the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso areas. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the north to northwest sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well as in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate" or two) in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Model guidance indicates that the seasonal burning activity across the Southeastern U.S. (including in eastern Texas) will decrease slightly due to influence and precipitation chances over portions the upper Texas Coastline and East Texas from the weakening low pressure system moving northeast. The light amounts of patchy residual smoke over portions of East and Southeast Texas is not expected to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the good range throughout most of the impacted regions, which includes the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas. Meanwhile, depending on the amount of burning activity and smoke associated with the Dempsey fire in Palo Pinto County, patchy residual smoke may continue to filter north over the Texas/Oklahoma border and portions of North Central Texas. The density and coverage of the smoke may elevate PM2.5 levels at times to the lower end of the "Moderate: range over portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, however is not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range throughout most of the region. Additionally, light amounts of incoming fine particulate background levels associated with residual smoke from seasonal fire activity across portions of South Central and South Texas slightly elevate PM2.5 levels, though the intensity of the smoke is not expected to be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range throughout most of the impacted regions, which may include parts of the Austin, Laredo, and San Antonio areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect Saturday for the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso areas. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west to northwest sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well as in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas; the upper end of the "Moderate" range or possibly higher in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas; and the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area.

Should the burning activity from the Dempsey fire in Palo Pinto County continue, depending on the density and coverage of the associated residual smoke filtering north over the Texas/Oklahoma border and portions of North Central Texas, fine particulate matter associated with the light residual smoke in addition to light surface winds combined with limited vertical mixing could also elevate urban particulate pollutants and raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Additionally, depending on the amount of continuing seasonal fire activity across parts of the Southeastern United States, including parts of East, Southeast, South Central, and South Texas, slightly elevated fine particulate background levels from patchy smoke could raise PM2.5 levels across portions of these regions of the state; the overall daily PM2.5 AQI however in most areas should remain in the "Good" range overall, which includes the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Big Bend, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

Locally heavy smoke from Independence Day fireworks and celebratory activities is possible in spots across the state, particularly in more urban locations, to raise PM2.5 levels at times to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to possibly reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate" or two) in parts of the Laredo area.

The most recent model and satellite data indicates that a weak pulse of African dust could begin to arrive along the southern Texas Coastline. The intensity and coverage of the dust plume along with residual smoke from holiday fireworks and celebratory activities could contribute towards raising the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Victoria areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm to hot temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

Light amounts of African dust may continue to linger just off the lower Texas coast and continue moving inland in patches primarily in South Texas and along the Texas coastline. Overall, depending on the movement and intensity of the possible filtering dust, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate" or two) in parts of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.