Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

An Ozone Action Day is in effect today for the Houston area. While an Ozone Action Day is not officially in effect, the latest information available this morning suggests that, if there is enough afternoon sunshine, light winds, warm to hot temperatures, and if lingering background levels are high enough could be sufficient for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west and northwest sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Elsewhere, ozone levels are forecast to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west and northwest sides of the Houston area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station and El Paso areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light density residual smoke from the wildfires across the Western CONUS is lingering over the northern half of the state. Additionally, some light density residual smoke from small, prescribed burnings across parts of East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley is lingering primarily over East, Southeast and North Central Texas. Lighter smoke aerosols are possibly extending over far West Texas and the Coastal Plains, however these aerosols are staying mostly aloft. Meanwhile, a very light density plume of Saharan dust that arrived yesterday over deep South Texas is forecast to continue north and westward; filtering over South Central Texas, the Coastal Plains, along the Rio Grande Valley, the Big Bend region, and the Permian Basin. Additionally, light daytime winds combined with elevated morning relative humidity levels are forecast to contribute towards slightly raising fine particulate matter especially in the more urban areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, and Lubbock areas.

While light daytime winds, some very light residual smoke from the wildfires in the Western CONUS, and light urban pollutant carryover across far West Texas may at times raise fine particulate levels to the "Moderate" range, increased afternoon vertical mixing is forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Much of the residual smoke over the state from the wildfires across the Western CONUS combined with the smoke from small, prescribed burnings across parts of East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley is expected to weaken and disperse, however some slightly more dense amounts are forecast to linger over East and Southeast Texas. Meanwhile, the very light density plume of Saharan dust is forecast to weaken while possibly lingering in very small amounts over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, South Central Texas, along the Rio Grande Valley, the Permian Basin, and North Central Texas. Additionally, light daytime winds combined with elevated morning relative humidity levels are forecast to contribute towards slightly raising fine particulate matter especially in the more urban areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

There is the possibility for pockets of low "Moderate" urban fine particulate PM2.5/PM10 concentrations for several hours across portions of far West Texas associated with light daytime winds and limited morning, vertical mixing and these conditions may persist long enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower end of the "Moderate" in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the low to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests that very little to none of the residual smoke should remain over the state from the wildfires across the Western CONUS along with any from small, prescribed burnings across parts of East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the aforementioned light density plume of Saharan dust is forecast to completely weaken and disperse. Meanwhile, as a cold front pushes through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and North Central Texas light morning winds combined with elevated morning relative humidity levels are forecast to contribute towards slightly raising fine particulate matter especially in the more urban areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light winds along with limited morning vertical mixing are forecast to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the low to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to continue moving southward through South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and to around the Coastal Plains. Slightly increased urban fine particulate background levels associated with light winds across Southeast Texas and South Central Texas along with some light continental haze filtering into the state from the north and east respectively, may periodically raise PM2.5 levels. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights, limiting pollutant dispersion, along with some light urban pollutant carryover from the previous days may periodically raise PM2.5 and PM10 levels to the "Moderate" range, the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs however are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the El Paso area.