Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Breezy winds, cool temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels are expected to be enough to keep ozone in the "Good" range for most of the state.

As a cold front moves through the eastern two-thirds of the state, light density residual smoke over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas associated with fire activities and industrial oil/gas operations along the eastern Mexico coast is forecast to be steered out of the state, improving PM2.5 levels. Additionally, there may have been some light density residual smoke over parts of Southeast, South Central, and North Central Texas yesterday associated with scattered agricultural burning activities across parts of the Southeast CONUS that had been lingering. These aerosols are also expected to be steered southward and out of the state and over the Gulf. Meanwhile, the slightly elevated relative humidity levels are expected to decrease behind the cold front as a drier airmass moves in, which is also expected to improve PM2.5 levels. Any suspended dust generated over the Texas Panhandle, far West Texas, the South Plains, and the Permian Basin yesterday attributed to gusty winds are expected to settle and not have much of an impact on PM2.5/PM10 concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing across far West Texas could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter, but the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the "Good" range (with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the El Paso area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A brief surface high-pressure system is forecast to move over the state following the passing of the aforementioned cold front. Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas could contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range at times, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Another low-pressure system with an attendant cold front is forecast to move through the Central Plains of the CONUS while the cold front, which should remain mostly dry over Texas, moves through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, the Permian Basin and approaches North Central and South Central Texas. Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas could again contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range at times, especially over the more populated areas. Slightly elevated relative humidity levels over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains could also contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of these regions as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Cooler temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are expected to be enough to keep ozone in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas

As the aforementioned dry cold front moves through South Central and North Central Texas, northerly winds may steer some very light density continental haze over these regions of the state along with Northeast and Southeast Texas, that may very slightly raise PM2.5 levels. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds over the eastern two-thirds of the state could contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range at times, especially over the more populated areas. Slightly elevated relative humidity levels may remain over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains and could again contribute towards slightly raising PM2.5 levels across portions of these regions as well. Gusty northerly afternoon winds however should provide enough dispersion of the fine particulate matter and keep the overall daily PM2.5 AQI in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing could raise PM2.5/PM10 levels to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region periodically throughout the day, however the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.