Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Laredo area.

A cold front is currently draped across West Central Texas as it extends from the North Central region through the Permian Basin. Areas of suspended dust associated with the plumes kicked up the previous day have pushed into portions of Central and South Texas this morning with lighter density dust being observed in North Central Texas. Fine particulate levels have spiked into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in the former two regions, although concentrations could begin to decrease as the cold front moves eastward. Meanwhile, large fires in Potter and Deaf Smith Counties, Texas were observed producing heavy-density smoke near the source before transitioning to moderate-to-light smoke as they move northeast. The smoke has remained north of the Amarillo area and while a wind shift out of the west-northwest could steer some of it into downtown Amarillo, the sustained gusty winds are expected to keep fine particulate concentrations mostly tempered throughout the day. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary will continue to transport moisture out of the Gulf with morning fog likely contributing toward the elevated fine particulate concentrations, however west/northwest winds behind it will quickly advect drier air south and eastward keeping the highest relative humidity limited to the South and coastal regions. Smoke from scattered fire activity, as well as industrial aerosol emissions and remnant smoke from previous days has concentrated into an area of light smoke off the east coast of Mexico. The southerly winds have transported it into South Texas as well as along the Southeast coast and will likely continue affecting these areas the remainder of the day. Looking to far West Texas, gusty winds could produce areas of blowing dust in addition to lingering dust kicked up from the previous few days. Overall, the daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area. Additionally, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Laredo areas, the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station and El Paso areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and Victoria areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Laredo area.

Another cold front will develop overnight Wednesday and is forecast to reach the Texas Hill Country Thursday morning. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary will continue to transport moisture out of the Gulf, however west/northwest winds behind it will quickly advect drier air south and eastward keeping the highest relative humidity limited to the south and coastal regions. Depending on the burning activity in northwest Texas and western Oklahoma, moderate density smoke could continue affecting portions of the Panhandle, but breezy winds and wind direction are expected to keep the effects limited to the areas surrounding downtown Amarillo. Depending on the fire and industrial activity in southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could continue to affect the deep South and coastal bend of Texas, combining to with the Gulf moisture to sustain elevated fine particulate levels. Meanwhile, areas of suspended dust associated with the plumes kicked up the previous day could remain in portions of the Permian Basin and South Plains, but the effects are expected to be limited as breezy winds promote sufficient dispersion. Looking to far West Texas, gusty winds could produce areas of blowing dust in addition to lingering dust kicked up from the previous few days. Overall, the daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, breezy winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Another cold front will enter northwest Texas early Saturday morning and will quickly move southeastward through the state, reaching South Central Texas by around mid to late morning. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could linger in South Texas as well as along the coast. The combination with high relative humidity is expected to sustain elevated fine particulate levels, particularly in the morning and afternoon but the timing of the front will be an important factor in how quickly pollutant dispersion commences. Depending on the burning activity in Potter and Deaf Smith County, Texas, light to moderate density smoke could affect the areas in and around Amarillo as northerly winds advect the smoke southward. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter at times with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs forecast to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, breezy winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Northerly winds will spread across the eastern two thirds of Texas after the aforementioned cold front moves southward out of the state by early Sunday morning. Depending on the burnings located in Potter and Deaf Smith Counties in the northern Texas Panhandle, light to moderate density smoke could affect the areas in and around the city of Amarillo as a large wind shift from the previous day promotes re-circulation. In Central and North Central Texas, light to moderate winds could facilitate urban fine particulate build-up, occasionally spiking PM2.5 levels into the "Moderate" range but the lack of higher relative humidity will limit these effects. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI could net out in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Limited vertical mixing could inhibit pollutant dispersion in far West Texas, but breezy winds are forecast to limit urban fine particulate formation and keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.