Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end in parts of the El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Dallas-Fort Worth areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Easterly to southerly winds are gradually returning to the state and are also aiding in transporting moisture from the Gulf farther northward over the eastern half of Texas again. Light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are expected to filter over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and small portions of Southeast and South Central Texas. Additionally, the light winds over the more populated areas are contributing towards raising fine particulate levels as well. Meanwhile, newer model guidance indicates that light density residual smoke attributed to Scattered wildfires across parts of the Northwestern CONUS may be filtering over portions of the Texas Panhandle, slightly raising fine particulate matter over portions of the region. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and limited vertical mixing combined with urban fine particulate build-up from the previous day over far West Texas could raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Newer model guidance suggests that light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) on the north side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Waco-Killeen area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A weak, upper-level disturbance is forecast to move over far West Texas, the Big Bend region, and Central Texas throughout the day as a cold front moves through the Texas Panhandle. While this system should provide slightly enhanced lift and vertical mixing, little impacts are expected as there is not much precipitation associated with this system. Depending on the amount of burning activities across Mexico and Central America, light density residual smoke and aerosols are forecast to continue filtering and lingering over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, Southeast and South Central Texas, as well as parts of North Central and Northeast Texas. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels and light winds over the eastern two-thirds of the state are forecast to slightly contribute towards raising fine particulate matter, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Bryan-College Station and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds combined with urban fine particulate carry-over from the previous day over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the Houston area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Laredo, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend and Dallas-Fort Worth areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Lubbock, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Newer model guidance indicates that the aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress southward and move through the South Plains, the Permian Basin, North Central and Northeast Texas and portions of Central Texas, accompanied by gusty northerly winds. Elevated relative humidity levels out ahead of the front along with light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds, limited morning vertical mixing, along with some light urban fine particulate carry-over from the previous day over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) on the west side of the El Paso area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Houston, and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Laredo, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, and Tyler-Longview areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to continue progressing southward and move through the rest of the state and over the Gulf, however slightly elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over deep South Texas, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and the coastal areas of Texas. The moisture may slightly contribute towards raising fine particulate matter over parts of these regions, especially over the more populated areas. Additionally, most of the light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are forecast to be steered over the Gulf. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light afternoon winds over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Houston area; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Corpus Christi and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A high-pressure system is forecast to move over parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley bringing mostly sunny and pleasant weather to the state. Slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter associated with light winds may contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels, especially over the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Meanwhile, small scattered burning activities across the state may begin to produce very light density residual smoke and also contribute towards slightly raising fine particulate matter. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.