Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The density of the Saharan dust plume remains mostly steady across a large portion of Texas with modest increases will possible in the South and South-Central regions later today. Persistent industrial activity in the Permian Basin may continue to produce light density smoke and aerosols and when combined with slightly elevated relative humidity, raise fine particulate concentrations across the region. Additionally, residual smoke from the wildfires in Nevada and Utah is lingering in portions of the Central, East, and coastal regions of Texas, although the effects at the surface do not appear to be significant. Gusty winds in the South Plains and Permian Basin could also result in additional areas of patchy blowing dust as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and San Antonio areas as well.

Wind speeds will slightly increase in far West Texas on Friday but the stable atmosphere and pollutant carryover from previous days are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Breezy southerly winds will persist as a dryline sets up across the TX-NM border, pumping copious moisture throughout the eastern two thirds of Texas with particularly high dew points in the deep South and coastal regions. The Saharan dust plume will continue affecting most regions, but model guidance indicates it will begin to weaken and disperse, although it will likely still elevate fine particulate matter concentrations. Gusty winds in the South Plains and Permian Basin could also result in additional areas of patchy blowing dust. Depending on the ongoing burning activity in southern Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, light density smoke and aerosols could continue affecting deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Additionally, residual smoke from the wildfires in Nevada and Utah could also advect into portions of the Panhandle and South Plains, possibly affecting portions of the Central and East regions of Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Occasional patchy blowing dust will be possible with the stronger wind gusts in far West Texas with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs forecast to net out at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Southerly winds will continue across the eastern two thirds of the state as a dryline extends near the TX-NM border, sustaining moisture advection out of the Gulf and keeping relative humidity elevated. Depending on the ongoing wildfires in Utah and Nevada, residual smoke could linger over portions of the East and coastal regions of Texas but an incoming upper trough is likely to reduce coverage over the state. The plume of Saharan dust is expected to continue to weaken and disperse most of the day but a denser plume is forecast to approach the southeast coast during the late evening hours. Industrial activity is also anticipated to persist in the Permian Basin and produce light smoke and aerosols that will be transported northward toward the South Plains. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Breezier winds in far West Texas could increase dispersion and reduce urban fine particulate matter but areas of patchy blowing dust are expected with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs forecast to net out at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A denser plume of Saharan dust will move inland on Monday as moisture continues to be transported into the eastern two thirds of Texas. Fine particulate concentrations are expected to increase across most regions, although the breezier winds could promote dispersion and somewhat mitigate the effects. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light to moderate winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter as the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The denser portion of the Saharan dust plume will move farther inland as it begins to weaken and disperse in the South and coastal regions of Texas. Additionally, while moisture continues to be advected out of the Gulf dew points will be slightly lower than in previous days, limiting how conducive the environment will be for particulate formation. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, and Waco-Killeen areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light to moderate winds and limited daytime mixing in far West Texas should keep urban fine particulate matter elevated, although chances for precipitation during the evening could promote dispersion. Additionally, patchy blowing dust associated with any strong thunderstorm outflows will also be possible. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.