Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Cold to cool temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A high-pressure system is over Texas and is accompanied by light daytime winds and lower morning mixing heights across a large majority of the state. While surface moisture will remain rather limited, the weak surface winds combined with the limited morning vertical mixing will gradually increase urban fine particulate matter concentrations in the more populated areas of the state. Small agricultural burnings across North Central, Central, and Southeast Texas are expected to continue to produce very light density smoke plumes that may slightly contribute towards raising fine particulate aerosols in parts of these regions as well. Additionally, some light density residual smoke from small agricultural burnings across portions of Oklahoma may have filtered over portions of North Central Texas yesterday and be slightly contributing towards raising fine particulate levels over this region as well. Meanwhile, industrial activities across the Permian Basin may also continue to produce light density aerosols over this region of the state as well and slightly raise PM2.5 concentrations too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range for a majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light, variable winds, limited morning vertical mixing, and some very light pollutant carryover from the previous day are forecast to slightly raise urban fine particulate matter across portions of far West Texas. These conditions may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The high-pressure system is forecast to remain over Texas Thursday morning, however a cold front is forecast to begin to move into the state from the Northwest region and southward through about half of the state by the evening hours. Light morning winds will prevail across the eastern half of Texas which will support urban fine particulate matter to slightly rise in the more populated areas as well as aerosols attributed to light density smoke from small agricultural burnings across North Central, Central, and Southeast Texas should they continue. Gusty evening winds behind the boundary however should help increase pollutant dispersion of these aerosols a little bit. That said, the large wind shift will result in re-circulation and could keep PM2.5 levels elevated throughout the day. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for a majority of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas.

Very light winds and limited morning vertical mixing are expected to keep urban fine particulate matter slightly elevated across portions of far West Texas. These conditions are forecast to be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures, scattered cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The aforementioned cold front should move through the rest of the state during the morning hours and disperse much of the aerosols associated with urban fine particulate matter and light density smoke from small agricultural burnings across North Central, Central, and Southeast Texas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light winds and limited morning vertical mixing are forecast to at times raise PM2.5/PM10 levels to the "Moderate" range. Newer model guidance however, suggests that the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs should net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Cold to cool temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Another high-pressure system is forecast to move over the state bringing another period of mostly sunny skies and light daytime winds to the majority of the state. The light winds accompanied with lower morning vertical mixing heights will limit dispersion of urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas of the state, which are expected to support PM2.5 levels to slightly rise into the "Moderate" range. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and lower morning mixing heights as the high-pressure moves overhead may lead to fine particulate levels raising the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.