Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The leading edge of a light to moderately dense plume of Saharan dust is expected to arrive over portions of deep South Texas later on in the afternoon and filter over small portions of the southern coastal bend of Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, light density residual smoke from the wildfires in California, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico is expected to linger over the Texas Panhandle, Permian Basin, South Plains, and far West Texas, with the higher concentrations forecast to be over far West Texas; most of these aerosols however should remain aloft. Additionally, light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas should also contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate levels over these portions of Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas as well.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the El Paso area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The lighter dense portion of the plume of Saharan dust is forecast to continue expanding north and eastward, possibly filtering over portions of Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and the upper Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, most of the residual smoke from the wildfires in California, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico is forecast to be steered westward and weaken over the Texas Panhandle, the Permian Basin, and the South Plains, with slightly higher concentrations possibly lingering over far West Texas. Additionally, light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas are expected to continue to contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate levels over these portions of Texas too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Bryan-College Station, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, El Paso, and Houston areas as well.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Lubbock area.

The more moderately dense portion of the plume of Saharan dust is forecast to reach the coastal regions of Texas while the lighter portion continues to linger mostly over the eastern two-thirds of the state, with very light amounts possibly expanding over the Big Bend region. Meanwhile, light density residual smoke from the wildfires in California, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico may continue to linger primarily over far West Texas with lighter densities possibly over small portions of the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state are expected to continue to contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate levels over these portions of Texas too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Big Bend area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds along with light density residual smoke could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Model guidance indicates that the moderately dense plume of Saharan dust may expand over most of the eastern two-thirds of the state, with light amounts possibly expanding over portions of the Big Bend region and the Permian Basin. Meanwhile, depending on the coverage and density of the residual smoke from the wildfires in California, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico, light amounts may filter/linger over portions of far West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and the Permian Basin. Additionally, lighter daytime winds than on Wednesday combined with persistent elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state are expected to continue to contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate levels over these portions of Texas too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds along with light density residual smoke could be enough to keep the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.