Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A cold front has stalled in northwest Texas this morning as high pressure builds in the Central Plains but will retreat as breezy southerly winds persist ahead of the boundary. Light morning winds combined with elevated relative humidity could increase the effects of urban fine particulate matter at times, particularly in the more populated areas. A few scattered burnings across Central and East Texas are expected to continue producing light plumes of residual smoke in the immediate surrounding areas, but widespread elevated fine particulate matter is not expected. Light smoke was observed in northwest Texas due to burning activity in the Southeast and Central CONUS as well as Mexico and Canada, but breezy winds combined with most of it remaining aloft are forecast to mitigate the effects on fine particulate concentrations. The leading edge of another Saharan dust plume could reach the southeast coast of Texas late this evening but is not expected to have any significant impacts. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Breezy winds in far West Texas could assist in pollutant dispersion, but the slightly elevated relative humidity combined with smoke from burnings in northern Mexico and western New Mexico could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Southerly winds will remain over the eastern two thirds of Texas as weak upper ridging remains over the state. Light density dust from the plume of Saharan dust could push farther northward into Central and North Texas, elevating PM2.5 concentrations as high relative humidity facilitates conditions more conducive for fine particulate formation. Additionally, depending on the ongoing burnings in the US, Mexico, and Canda, light density smoke could affect portions of the eastern two thirds of Texas. Persistently breezy winds across most regions could somewhat mitigate pollutant build-up due to better dispersion, however. Very light density residual smoke associated with the New Mexico fire could affect portions of the western Panhandle but is not anticipated to have significant effects on fine particulate concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light and variable winds combined with possible light smoke from burning activity in northern Mexico and western New Mexico could sustain slightly elevated fine particulate matter in far West Texas, with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs netting out in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A cold front will enter northwest Texas on Sunday morning as southerly winds continue to pump copious amounts of moisture into most of Texas. The light density plume of Saharan dust will also remain over portions of the eastern half of the state and will combine with the high relative humidity to increase fine particulate concentrations in the affected areas. Lighter winds could increase the effects of urban fine particulate matter and further increase PM2.5 levels as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Pollutant carryover from previous days could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas but increasing winds and chances for precipitation could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The cold front will move into Central Texas Monday morning as southerly winds continue to advect moisture across most of Texas. The Saharan dust plume will be mostly dissipated but lingering effects may be observed during the early morning hours. While light winds and high relative humidity could increase urban fine particulate matter during the morning hours in Central and South Texas, precipitation will gradually spread throughout most of the state as the day progresses, dispersing most pollutants. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate due to light winds could affect far West Texas but increased vertical mixing combined with precipitation the previous day are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front will stall across the South and Southeast regions of Texas Tuesday morning but will slowly erode as high pressure in the Central Plains increase southerly winds. Light winds and a large wind shift in the Central and North regions may slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter at times but the reduced relative humidity combined with the precipitation the previous day will likely limit PM2.5 concentrations. Farther South, while higher relative humidity could be more conducive for fine particulate formation, lingering precipitation associated with the boundary is expected to mitigate the effects. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and less vertical mixing in far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter concentrations but model guidance suggests the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs will remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.