Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Victoria areas.

High-pressure is dominating the weather over Texas providing mostly sunny skies and light to moderate winds. Small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, as well as the U.S. Central Plains are expected to continue producing light density residual smoke that may slightly raise fine particulate matter across parts of these regions. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate aerosols attributed to light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights may slightly raise PM2.5 levels across the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Additionally, industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to produce light density smoke over portions of this region and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, as well as the U.S. Central Plains are expected to continue to produce light density residual smoke that may slightly raise fine particulate matter across portions of these regions. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate aerosols attributed to light morning winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights may slightly raise PM2.5 levels across the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Additionally, industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to produce light density smoke over portions of this region and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Laredo, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Fine urban particulate matter over portions of far West Texas associated with limited dispersion from light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Newer model guidance suggests that light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Should some of the small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas as well as the Coastal Plains continue, light density residual smoke may continue to linger and slightly raise fine particulate matter across portions of these regions. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate aerosols attributed to light morning winds and limited dispersion may slightly raise PM2.5 levels across the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Additionally, industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to produce light density smoke over portions of this region and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels as well. Also, depending on burning and industrial activities across the Mexican Coastal Plains, the western Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche, a mixture of smoke and industrial aerosols may expand and filter over portions of deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Corpus Christi, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, and Victoria areas.

Light daytime winds may limit dispersion of urban fine particulate matter across portions of far West Texas that may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, insufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

An upper level low-pressure system is forecast to begin moving across northern Mexico and transport Pacific moisture over Texas, which will support scattered afternoon through late evening showers across most of the state, with the exception of the northern Texas Panhandle. Depending on the small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central, North Central, and Southeast Texas as well as the Coastal Plains continue, light density residual smoke may continue to linger and slightly raise fine particulate matter across portions of these regions. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate aerosols attributed to light morning winds and slightly elevated relative humidity levels may raise PM2.5 levels across the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Additionally, depending on burning and industrial activities across the Mexican Coastal Plains, the western Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche, a mixture of smoke and industrial aerosols may continue to filter over deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light winds could maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The aforementioned upper level low-pressure system is forecast to move across the center of the state, continuing to transport Pacific moisture over the eastern two-thirds of the state and support daytime scattered showers. Slightly elevated urban fine particulate aerosols associated to light morning winds and slightly elevated relative humidity levels may raise PM2.5 levels across the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Additionally, depending on burning and industrial activities across the Mexican Coastal Plains, the western Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche, a mixture of smoke and industrial aerosols may continue to filter over deep South Texas and expand over portions of the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

There is the possibility for pockets of low "Moderate" urban fine particulate matter across portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited dispersion. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs however are forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.