Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) on the south and east sides of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A cold front is currently draped across Central Texas, cooling off temperatures a little bit and producing north/northeasterly winds. The burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec continue to produce light density residual smoke aerosols that have filtered over deep South Texas, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and the Coastal Plains. Industrial activities across the Permian Basin may continue to produce light density smoke and contribute towards raising fine particulate background levels across parts of the region. Additionally, the very humid conditions have facilitated fine particulate formation across the majority of the state, with the exception of far West Texas, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to lift off to the northeast towards the upper Mississippi Valley. Depending on the burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, light density residual smoke aerosols may continue to filter over deep South Texas, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and portions of the Coastal Plains and South-Central Texas. Additionally, the elevated relative humidity levels will continue to promote fine particulate formation across the majority of the state, except for far West Texas, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing may be enough to increase the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area, the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Lubbock areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Should the burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, light density residual smoke aerosols may continue to filter over the Southern half of Texas. Additionally, the elevated relative humidity levels will continue to promote fine particulate formation across the majority of the state, with the exception of far West Texas, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing may be enough to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area, and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Depending on the burning activity that has been ongoing in portions of Mexico and Central America, light density residual smoke and aerosols could affect the eastern half of the state as a frontal boundary enters Northwest Texas during the morning hours. Conditions will remain conducive for fine particulate formation as moisture advection out of the Gulf sustains elevated relative humidity throughout the eastern two thirds of Texas, however, breezier winds will likely facilitate better pollutant dispersion. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds, limited vertical mixing, and pollutant carryover from the previous day in far West Texas are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned boundary will retreat northward as breezy southerly winds persist across most of the southern half of Texas. Light density smoke and aerosols may continue to affect portions of the South and Central regions of Texas, but the highest relative humidity is forecast to retreat southward to the South and coastal areas. The leading edge of a plume of Saharan dust is forecast to enter the state Tuesday morning and gradually move inland. However, with breezy conditions persisting in most regions, pollutant dispersion is forecast to mitigate PM2.5 increases. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Very light winds and stable atmospheric conditions in far West Texas are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.