Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

A weak frontal boundary has stalled across the Texas Hill Country and eastern Permian Basin this morning. Small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central and East Texas will continue to produce some light-density residual smoke and aerosols over portions of these regions of Texas. Additionally, light urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels may also keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated too. Meanwhile, southerly winds have continued steering some residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols associated with burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche over deep South Texas and could spread into portions of the Coastal Plains later today. Industrial activity in the Permian Basin combined with slightly elevated relative humidity has resulted in elevated fine particulate matter across the region with model guidance suggesting it will persist throughout the day. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Bryan-College Station, and San Antonio areas.

Fine urban particulate levels over portions of far West Texas owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Should the small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central and East Texas continue, some of the light density residual smoke aerosols combined with some light urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels may keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated over portions of these regions of Texas. Gusty afternoon winds, however, should help with dispersion of these fine particulates. Meanwhile southerly winds may continue to steer light density residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols from potentially ongoing burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Additionally, depending on the industrial activity in the Permian Basin, slightly elevated fine particulate matter could continue across this region. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Midland-Odessa, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds could keep urban fine particulate matter slightly elevated earlier in the day but increasing winds in far West Texas could be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs from increasing beyond the upper end of the "Good" range for most of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Another cold front will enter northwest Texas Wednesday morning but will stall across the Texas Hill Country and Central Texas during the afternoon hours. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, southerly winds could advect it into portions of deep South Texas and along the coastal bend, and when combined with elevated relative humidity could slightly increase fine particulate concentrations in the affected areas. While fine particulate levels could remain slightly elevated in Central and North Central Texas during the morning hours, precipitation and breezy winds associated with the front will likely result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds and stable atmospheric conditions could elevate urban fine particulate in far West Texas with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs reaching the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

With southerly winds expected to persist as the aforementioned front retreats northward out of the state, light density smoke and aerosols associated with burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico could continue affecting portions of deep South Texas as well as along the Southeast coast of Texas. With high relative humidity expected to remain in these regions, elevated fine particulate matter could persist. Farther north, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter could be observed during the morning hours but breezy winds as well as scattered precipitation will likely provide sufficient dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds could generate patchy blowing dust in far West Texas, with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs possibly reaching the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.