Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

An Ozone Action Day is in effect today for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west and north sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A cold front has stalled across the Central and Southeast regions of Texas and is forecast to slowly lift northwards as a warm front as high pressure in the Central Plains increases southerly winds. A tropical cyclone developing off the Gulf coast of the Texas/Mexico border is forecast to move northeastward along the coastline and produce heavy rain showers and gusty winds over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains. Meanwhile, light and/or variable winds along with elevated relative humidity levels over North Central, Central, and Southeast Texas may slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter at times, however precipitation will help limit PM2.5 concentrations from rising too much. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and lower vertical mixing heights across far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate matter, however model guidance suggests the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs should remain in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Lubbock area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, El Paso, and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Should some wildfires across portions of Washington state continue, model guidance suggests that some light density residual smoke may be steered southward over the Southern Plains and possibly expand over portions of the Texas Panhandle, however most of the aerosols should remain aloft. Meanwhile, depending on the amount of burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero and Michoacan, light density residual smoke aerosols may expand over portions of deep South Texas as the aforementioned tropical cyclone advances northeastward along the coastline and over Southeast Texas, producing heavy rain showers and gusty winds. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels may promote fine particulate formation across the eastern two-thirds of the state, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin and Brownsville-McAllen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Elevated evening and overnight winds could generate and transport patchy blowing dust across portions of far West Texas, and while some periods may see PM2.5/PM10 levels reach the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range, the density and duration of the possible dust are forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range across most of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, and Lubbock areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests that light density residual smoke from the potentially ongoing wildfires across portions of Washington state may continue to linger in decreasing concentrations over the Texas Panhandle as a cold front is forecast to move over the region. Meanwhile, depending on the amount of burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero and Michoacan, light density residual smoke aerosols may continue to filter over portions of deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley as the aforementioned tropical cyclone weakens over Southeast Texas. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels will continue to promote fine particulate formation across the majority of the state, with the exception of the Texas Panhandle, the Permian Basin, and far West Texas, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Light amounts of suspended dust generated the previous day along with windy conditions across far West Texas generating more suspended dust are forecast to keep fine particulates elevated across the region. While the windiest times during the early morning hours may be enough for periods of PM2.5/PM10 levels possibly reaching the "Unhealthy" range, the intensity and duration of the suspended dust are forecast for the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to net out in the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the region, which includes El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to move through the South Plains, Permian Basin, North Central and Northeast Texas, cooling off temperatures a little bit and producing northerly to easterly winds. Should the burning activities across portions of the Mexico states of Guerrero and Michoacan continue, light density residual smoke aerosols may continue to filter over portions of deep South Texas, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and portions of the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels will continue to promote fine particulate formation across the majority of the state, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.