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Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

The latest forecast for air quality conditions in Texas' metropolitan areas.

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July 22, 2024

Forecast is for Ozone, PM2.5, & PM10, and is based on EPA's Air Quality Index (AQI)

Forecast Region
(Click name for AIRNOW version)
Mon
07/22/2024
Tue
07/23/2024
Wed
07/24/2024
Thu
07/25/2024
Amarillo Ozone Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone
Austin PM2.5 Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Beaumont-Port Arthur Good Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Big Bend Good Good Good Good
Brownsville-McAllen PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5
Bryan-College Station Good Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Corpus Christi PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5
Dallas-Fort Worth Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone* Ozone Ozone/PM2.5
El Paso Ozone Ozone Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone/PM2.5
Houston PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5
Laredo Good Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Lubbock Good Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone
Midland-Odessa Good Ozone Ozone/PM2.5 Ozone
San Antonio Good Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Tyler-Longview PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5
Victoria Good PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5
Waco-Killeen PM2.5 PM2.5 Ozone/PM2.5 PM2.5
An asterisk (*) indicates that an Ozone Action Day is or will be in effect for the indicated region.
A caret (^) indicates that levels of PM may exceed the applicable short-term NAAQS. For more information see the following TCEQ websites:Air Pollution from Particulate Matter and Voluntary Tips for Citizens and Business to Reduce Emissions.

Forecast Discussion

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Big Bend, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Northerly winds aloft over the Great Plains and Midwest regions of the U.S. are transporting a significant amount of mixed density residual smoke from a combination of seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the western and northwestern portions of the U.S. over the country with the lighter density plumes being observed over Texas. The majority of the smoke will likely remain aloft with only very little mixing down to the surface. Meanwhile, slightly elevated fine particulate background levels in more urban portions of the state are associated with a stalled frontal boundary stretching across the center of the state that is producing light morning winds with elevated relative humidity levels along with scattered thundershowers. Periodic, localized downbursts in the vicinity of the frontal boundary may occur and produce isolated gusty conditions that will help with the dispersion of aerosols. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect on Tuesday for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview and Waco-Killeen areas.

Mainly light density residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the western and northwestern portions of the U.S. will continue to linger and expand over Texas with models suggesting that a bit more moderate density plume may possibly begin to reach portions of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and North Central Texas, however the majority of this denser smoke along with the lighter densities over the rest of the state should continue to remain aloft. Additionally, the leading edge of a Saharan dust plume is forecast to reach the southern tip of Texas and begin expanding over the southern coastal bend of Texas and lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary stretching across the center of the state may begin to lift slightly northward and possibly begin to transition into a warm front. Persistent light morning winds with elevated relative humidity levels associated with this frontal boundary are expected to continue to slightly elevate fine particulate background levels in parts of more urban areas of the state. While scattered thundershowers may reduce fine particulate levels at times, enough of the aerosols from the smoke and dust plumes may reach the surface and raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Waco-Killeen area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area.

Model guidance indicates that moderate density residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the western and northwestern portions of the U.S. may expand over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Big Bend region, far West Texas, North Central Texas, and Northeast Texas with lighter amounts over the rest of the state, with most of the aerosols remaining aloft. Meanwhile, the light density plume of Saharan dust is expected to continue lingering over South Texas, the lower coastal bend of Texas as well as Rio Grande Valley and possibly reach portions of South Central and Southeast Texas. A little more moderate plume may arrive over portions of deep South Texas and the coastal bend of Texas, contributing a little more fine particulate matter to portions of these regions of the state. Persistent light morning winds with elevated relative humidity levels for the eastern two-thirds of the state are expected to continue to slightly elevate fine particulate background levels in parts of more urban areas. While ongoing scattered thundershowers over portions of the state may periodically reduce fine particulate levels, the densities and coverage of the smoke and Saharan dust plumes may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Big Bend area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the density and coverage of the residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the western and northwestern portions of the U.S., model guidance indicates that the majority of the fine particulate matter will linger over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Big Bend region, far West Texas, North Central Texas, and Northeast Texas portions of the state and remain aloft. Meanwhile, model guidance also suggests the more moderate density plume of Saharan dust will continue filtering over coastal regions of the state and reach South Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and the upper Rio Grande Valley region. Additionally, persistent light morning winds with elevated relative humidity levels for the eastern two-thirds of the state are expected to continue to slightly elevate fine particulate background levels in parts of more urban areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

This forecast was last updated at 1:35 PM on Monday, July 22nd, and is updated daily on normal TCEQ workdays and may also be updated on weekends or holidays when air pollution levels are high. Regardless of our forecast, we always recommend that each individual determine what level of activity they should conduct based on the actual local conditions. See the "Related Current Data" links below to monitor the latest actual conditions.

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