Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The plume of Saharan dust will push into the western third of the state while expected to somewhat weaken and disperse in the eastern and coastal portions of Texas. The burning activity across Canada, Mexico, and southwestern CONUS has continued to produce light density smoke that has been transported into portions of the North Central and Northwest regions as well as the Permian Basin and deep South Texas, although most of it expected to continue to remain aloft. Slightly elevated relative humidity could make conditions more conducive for fine particulate formation in the eastern two thirds of Texas but sustained breezy conditions could mitigate the effects due to better dispersion. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning and afternoon winds, light smoke associated with the southwestern CONUS burnings, and remnant smoke from previous days in far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, with the threat for occasional blowing dust continuing as thunderstorms will remain possible, sustaining the threat for strong outflows.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Depending on the burning activity across Canada, Mexico, and southwestern CONUS, light density smoke could be transported into portions of the North Central, Northwest, and deep South/coastal regions of the state with most of it expected to continue remaining aloft. A trough moving into southeast Texas and the coastal bend with increase rain chances in those areas, bringing some breezy conditions. Industrial activity in the Permian Basin could also produce light density aerosols that affect the surrounding areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light morning and afternoon winds, light smoke associated with the southwestern CONUS burnings, and remnant smoke from previous days in far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, with the threat for occasional blowing dust continuing as thunderstorms will remain possible, sustaining the threat for strong outflows.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

If the burning activity across Canada, Mexico, and southwestern CONUS continues, light density smoke could be transported into the Northwest and North Central regions as well as portions of the South Plains and deep South Texas, with the density is expected to decrease while remaining mostly aloft. Additional Saharan dust could spread inland into Texas, but the density is forecast to be relatively light. Light winds could increase urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas as high relative humidity spreads farther north and westward, although increasing chances for precipitation could aid dispersion. Industrial activity in the Permian Basin could also produce light density aerosols that affect the surrounding areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Patchy blowing dust will be possible in far West Texas as gusty winds increase in the region, with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests the smoke from the burnings across Canada, Mexico, and southwestern CONUS will mostly disperse from the state, although a few scattered burnings in the Permian Basin could slightly raise fine particulate concentrations in the surrounding areas. Relative humidity will remain slightly elevated, but the highest values will remain along coast and South region. A frontal boundary will also move into North Texas Monday morning and will gradually increase the coverage of scattered precipitation as it moves into Central Texas. Another round of Saharan dust will move into the state during the morning hours in a slightly higher density, slightly increasing surface PM2.5 and PM10 levels, but the frontal boundary and attendant precipitation will likely limit the most significant effects to the South and coastal regions. Light, variable winds could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter, but the decreasing moisture combined with possible showers and thunderstorms should limit the effects. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Occasional patchy blowing dust will be possible with the strongest wind gusts in far West Texas, but possible precipitation could increase dispersion. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The boundary will stall across Central Texas as precipitation remains possible from the Permian Basin through Central and East Texas. Light residual smoke could linger in portions of the South Plains as well as encroach on the East region of Texas as a layer of aerosols persists in the Central and East CONUS. Saharan dust will remain over a large portion of the state and could continue to slightly elevate fine particulate concentrations but much like the previous day, the stalled front and associated precipitation could wash out most of the effects. Light winds could sustain slightly elevated urban fine particulates in Central and North Texas, but vertical mixing and possible precipitation could disperse most of it. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Persistent vertical mixing combined with a chance for showers and thunderstorms could increase dispersion of urban fine particulate matter, dropping the PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.