Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A stalled frontal boundary is over North Central and Northeast Texas and will remain over these regions through tomorrow evening accompanied with light daytime winds (with possible gusty conditions at times). Most of the residual smoke attributed to wildfires across the central Northwest Territories in Canada as well as fires across Utah and Colorado is lingering over the northern half of the state, however should remain mostly aloft. Very little smoke associated with burning activities across southern Mexico may filter over deep South Texas and portions of the Coastal Plains and lower Rio Grande Valley. The primary fine particulate source is expected to be from a moderately dense plume of Saharan dust that will arrive over deep South Texas and the Coastal Plains, possibly pushing as far inland today as parts of Southeast Texas, South Central Texas, and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as the Permian Basin could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter, however thundershowers should help washout some of the aerosols. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas as well.

Occasional patchy blowing dust associated with thunderstorm outflows are possible across parts of far West Texas, however the density and duration of the possible suspended dust are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to remain stalled across North Central and Northeast Texas as thundershowers remain possible for the Permian Basin as well as North Central, Northeast, South Central, and Southeast Texas. Light density residual smoke attributed to the wildfires across the central Northwest Territories in Canada as well as fires across Utah and Colorado are forecast to linger over the northern half of the state, however these aerosols should remain mostly aloft. There's not much expected light density residual smoke associated with burning activities across southern Mexico that is expected to filter over southern Texas. Additionally, the main fine particulate source is expected to be remain from the moderately dense plume of Saharan dust that will expand over most of the state with the exception of the Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, far West Texas, and northeast Texas. Light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as the Permian Basin sustaining slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin and Beaumont-Port Arthur areas as well.

Gusty conditions across portions of far West Texas may continue to produce patches of blowing dust associated with outflows from scattered thunderstorms. The density and duration of the possible suspended dust attributed to these storms are not expected be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Very little light density residual smoke associated with the wildfires across the central Northwest Territories in Canada as well as fires across Utah and Colorado are expected to linger over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, North Central, and Northeast Texas, with these aerosols also expected to remain mostly aloft. Additionally, very light density residual smoke associated with burning activities across southern Mexico may filter over deep South Texas. The moderately dense plume of Saharan dust is forecast to expand over most of the state with the exception of far West Texas. Light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as the Permian Basin, contributing towards slightly raising urban fine particulate matter as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Dallas-Fort Worth areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance indicates that most of the light density residual smoke associated with the wildfires across the central Northwest Territories in Canada as well as fires across Utah and Colorado over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, North Central, and Northeast Texas should weaken and disperse. Meanwhile, very light density residual smoke associated with burning activities across southern Mexico may continue to filter over deep South Texas. Additionally, the moderately dense plume of Saharan dust is forecast to continue filtering and expanding over most of the state with the exception of far West Texas. Light daytime winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels are forecast to remain over the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as the Permian Basin, contributing towards slightly raising urban fine particulate matter as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds could be enough to sustain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.