Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

New model guidance suggests that warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light density residual smoke aerosols associated with small, scattered burning activities across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, slightly elevated relative humidity levels attributed to moisture advection out of the Gulf, along with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter are forecast to slightly raise PM2.5 levels across these parts of Texas. Additionally, residual smoke and other fine particulate aerosols associated with the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche are expected to continue being transported northward over deep South Texas as well as across the coastal bend of Texas and portions of Southeast Texas. New monitoring air measurements and model guidance suggests that the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas; and stay in the upper end of the "Good" range for a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas as well.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds may generate and transport patchy blowing dust from northern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far West Texas across the region. While newer model guidance suggests the intensity of the winds may cause PM10 levels to spike into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range at times, the duration and coverage of the dust is forecast to only raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range for parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

A weak cold front is forecast to move through North Central, Northeast, and South Central Texas during the daytime and approach Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains overnight. Depending on the amount of small, scattered burning activities across portions of the U.S. Central Plains, Mississippi Valley, and eastern two-thirds of Texas, light density residual smoke aerosols along with slightly elevated relative humidity levels attributed to Gulf moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter is expected to raise PM2.5 levels across these regions of Texas. Additionally, depending on the amount of burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche, smoke and other aerosols are forecast to continue being transported over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, and possibly over portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Overall, depending on the density of the aerosols coming from Mexico, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; and stay in the upper end of the "Good" range for a majority of the Bryan-College Station and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas as well.

Light daytime winds may limit dispersion of urban fine particulate matter across portions of far West Texas which could at times raise the PM2.5/PM10 levels into the "Moderate" range. The overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs however are forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The aforementioned weak cold front is forecast to move through the rest of Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas during the morning hours. Depending on the amount of small, scattered burning activities across portions of the Central Plains and eastern two-thirds of Texas, light northerly winds are forecast to recirculate some of the light density residual smoke aerosols and urban fine particulate matter along with slightly elevated relative humidity levels attributed to Gulf moisture over these regions of Texas and keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated. Meanwhile, some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols associated with the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche should begin to be steered southward out of the state and over the Gulf. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, and San Antonio areas; and stay in the upper end of the "Good" range for a majority of the Tyler-Longview and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds and an overnight temperature inversion over far West Texas are expected to limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface, slightly enhancing urban fine particulate pollution. These conditions may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and Tyler-Longview areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") for a majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Victoria areas.

Should the small, scattered burning activities across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern two-thirds of Texas continue, light easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast to steer some of the light density residual smoke aerosols and urban fine particulate matter along with slightly elevated relative humidity levels attributed to Gulf moisture over these regions of Texas and keep the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated. Meanwhile, depending on the burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche, southerly winds may steer some of the residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols back over portions of deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Persistent light morning winds and another overnight temperature inversion over far West Texas are expected to again limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface, slightly enhancing urban fine particulate matter. These conditions may be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.