Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Houston and Midland-Odessa areas.

A cold front is moving through South Central Texas as an upper-level low pressure system moves over the Four-Corners region of the CONUS. Light morning winds along with elevated relative humidity levels across the eastern two-thirds of the state are promoting the formation of patchy morning fog and increasing the effects of urban fine particulate matter as residual smoke and aerosols associated with burning activities across Mexico and Central America are being transported over the eastern two-thirds of the state and the Big Bend region as well. While fine particulate levels may spike into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range or higher mainly in parts of deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and along the lower Rio Grande Valley at times, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain in the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas as well.

Lingering suspended dust from the previous day combined with occasional additional patchy blowing dust due to gusty winds across small portions of far West Texas could result in the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs reaching the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big bend and Dallas-Fort Worth areas.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress southward over the Coastal Plains and deep South Texas as northerly winds spread through the eastern two-thirds of the state. The elevated relative humidity levels will largely be pushed over northern Mexico and out into the Gulf but will linger over portions of deep South Texas and as well as along the coast as the boundary slows down and possibly stalls. Light to moderate density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are also expected to continue filtering and lingering over the southern half of the state, with the higher concentrations over deep South Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing may promote re-circulation of the airmass over far West Texas and keep fine particulates slightly elevated. These conditions may cause the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to slowly move over the Gulf as easterly to southerly winds will gradually return and are forecast to aid in transporting moisture from the Gulf farther northward over the eastern half of Texas again. Light density residual smoke and aerosols attributed to burning activities across Mexico and Central America are forecast to filter over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and small portions of Southeast and South Central Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and limited vertical mixing combined with urban fine particulate build-up from the previous day over far West Texas could raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

A weak, upper-level disturbance is forecast to move over far West Texas, the Big Bend region, and Central Texas throughout the day. While this system should provide slightly enhanced lift and vertical mixing, little impacts are expected as there is not much precipitation associated with this system. Depending on the amount of burning activities across Mexico and Central America, light density residual smoke and aerosols may continue to linger over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and small portions of Southeast Texas. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels over the eastern two-thirds of the state are forecast to slightly contribute towards raising fine particulate matter, especially over the more populated areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin and Tyler-Longview areas.

Light daytime winds combined with urban fine particulate carry-over from the previous day over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.