Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Newer model guidance and monitoring data suggests that light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur area; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

As a mostly dry cold front will move through South Central Texas, North Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal plains, northerly winds may steer very light density residual smoke attributed to the wildfires across southern British Columbia in Canada and parts of the CONUS Pacific Northwest over portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle, North Central Texas, and Northeast Texas and extend over Central Texas. These aerosols however should remain mostly aloft. The northerly winds may also steer some very light density continental haze over North Central, Northeast, and Southeast Texas, that may very slightly raise PM2.5 levels. Light density residual smoke associated with small, scattered prescribed burnings in parts of North Central, East, and South Central Texas as well as parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley may continue to linger over parts of these regions and slightly raise PM2.5 levels as well. The majority of light density residual smoke over deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and parts of Southeast Texas, attributed to burning activities and industrial oil/gas operations along the eastern coast of Mexico are expected to be steered southward over the Gulf and improve PM2.5 levels over these regions. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds over the eastern two-thirds of the state could contribute slightly towards raising PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range at times too, especially over the more populated areas. Slightly elevated relative humidity levels may remain over deep South Texas and could again contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of this region. While gusty northerly afternoon winds at times should provide some dispersion of these fine particulates, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and net out in the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing could raise PM2.5/PM10 levels to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region periodically throughout the day, however the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Cooler temperatures, insufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or lower incoming background levels are expected to be enough to keep ozone in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas

A surface high-pressure system is forecast to develop over the Central CONUS, following the passing of the aforementioned cold front, and bring light to moderate daytime winds to much of Texas. Most of any lingering residual smoke over the state associated with the potentially on going wildfires across southern British Columbia in Canada and parts of the CONUS Pacific Northwest should disperse and have little impacts on surface PM2.5 levels. Newer model guidance suggests that the small, scattered prescribed burnings in parts of North Central, East, and South Central Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley will persist and the light density residual smoke associated with them could linger over these regions as well as filter over portions of the Coastal Plains. The northerly winds may also steer some light continental haze over North Central, South Central, East, and Southeast Texas, slightly contributing towards raising PM2.5 concentrations, especially over the more populated areas. Some very light density residual smoke over deep South Texas, attributed to burning activities and industrial oil/gas operations along the eastern coast of Mexico, may refilter over portions of this region of Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston areas and should remain in the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

There is the possibility for pockets of low "Moderate" urban fine particulate PM2.5 concentrations for several hours across portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing. Newer model guidance suggests that afternoon rain showers should help wash out these fine particulates and that the light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Cooler temperatures, insufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or lower incoming background levels are expected to be enough to keep ozone in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The aforementioned surface high-pressure system is forecast to move closer to Texas and continue to bring light daytime winds to much of the state, with the exception of deep South Texas and parts of the Coastal Plains and South Central Texas, where winds may remain a little gusty at times. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to move over the Mexico-Texas border and bring some instability and precipitation over parts of the southern and western portions of the state. Depending on if the small, scattered prescribed burnings in parts of North Central, East, and South Central Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley continue, model guidance indicates that light density residual smoke may linger over these regions of the state as well as the Coastal Plains. Some very light density residual smoke over deep South Texas, attributed to burning activities and industrial oil/gas operations along the eastern coast of Mexico, may continue to linger over portions of this region of Texas. The northerly winds may also steer some light continental haze over North Central, South Central, East, and Southeast Texas, slightly contributing towards raising PM2.5 concentrations, especially over the more populated areas. Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited local dispersion from the light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over North Central, South Central, East, and Southeast Texas could contribute towards raising the PM2.5/PM10 levels to the "Moderate" range periodically throughout the day. Newer model guidance suggests that scattered rain showers over the Rio Grande Valley, South Central Texas, the Coastal Plains, and deep South Texas should help washout some of these fine particulates. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and should net out in the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Houston area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Depending on the amount of scattered burning activities across North Central, East, and South Central Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley, patchy light density residual smoke combined with slightly elevated fine particulate background levels associated with continental haze and/or local urban sources from light daytime winds could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and should net out in the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas could contribute towards raising the PM2.5/PM10 levels to the "Moderate" range periodically throughout the day, however the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain out in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Should the scattered burning activities across North Central, East, and South Central Texas as well as the lower Mississippi River Valley continue, patchy light density residual smoke combined with slightly elevated fine particulate background levels associated with continental haze and/or local urban sources from light daytime winds could keep and/or raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and should net out in the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi and Laredo areas.

Light daytime winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights, limiting pollutant dispersion, along with some light urban pollutant carryover from the previous days over portions of far West Texas may raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with a possible isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the El Paso area as well.