Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area.

Strong daytime winds are expected to continue to generate and transport widespread moderate to heavy density blowing dust through much of the Texas Panhandle while being a bit more patchy through the Permian Basin and Far West Texas. PM2.5/PM10 levels may spike at times to the upper end of the "Moderate" range or lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range under the highest wind gusts primarily in the Texas Panhandle with lower concentrations expected over the Permian Basin, Far West Texas, and Big Bend region. The duration and intensity of the blowing dust is forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Lubbock areas, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area, and the upper end of the "Good" range through the majority of the Big Bend area. The daily PM10 AQI is forecast to rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Model guidance indicates a rapid surge of moderate density smoke from agricultural burning activity in Mexico and Central America will filter over South Texas while expanding inland across the eastern two-thirds of the state, converging along the cold frontal boundary as it progresses eastward, with the highest concentrations over South Texas, the southern coastal bend of Texas, and South Central Texas. Depending on the amount and coverage of showers/thunderstorms associated with the cold front primarily over North Central and Northeast Texas, model guidance indicates that the intensity and duration of the possible smoke combined with elevated relative humidity levels may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Tyler-Longview areas.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect on Saturday for the Houston-Galveston area. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the south side of the Houston-Galveston area; the lower to middle end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Tyler-Longview areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, El Paso, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Depending on the amount of agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America, light to moderate amounts of lingering smoke may persist over portions of South Texas, Southeast Texas, and along the coastal bend of Texas as the aforementioned cold front slows down and stalls along the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, light amounts of lofted dust kicked up the previous day associated with the high winds over the Permian Basin and Far West Texas from the cold front may be transported eastward over Southwest, South Central, and North Central Texas. Additionally, limited dispersion from light winds may elevate urban fine particulate background levels as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to rise to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, El Paso, Laredo, San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the state, moderate to strong winds, mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, and Houston areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the amount of agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America, moderate density residual smoke will continue at varying intensities across much of eastern two-thirds of the state as the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary lifts northward as a warm front. Additionally, should agricultural burning activity across the Lower Mississippi Valley (including in eastern Texas) continue, residual smoke could contribute light amounts of fine particulate background levels across East and Southeast Texas. Along with elevated relative humidity levels, the coverage and intensity of the smoke is forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Victoria areas and to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds and limited vertical mixing over Far West Texas may allow for elevated urban fine particulate concentrations early in the day to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise and elsewhere in the Big Bend region, moderate to strong winds, mild temperatures, and/or lower incoming background should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Lingering patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America is expected to remain across the majority of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Along with elevated relative humidity levels, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain at the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Some localized blowing dust is possible during the afternoon and evening hours as breezy conditions move over portions of Far West Texas, which is forecast to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Depending on the timing of the movement of a cold front forecast to push through the Texas Panhandle, Permian Basin, and Far West Texas, strong afternoon winds could generate and transport heavy amounts of blowing dust along and behind the frontal boundary, covering much of the mentioned portions of the state at varying intensities. The daily PM2.5 AQI could possibly reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Amarillo and El Paso areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Lubbock and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Big Bend region. The daily PM10 AQI is forecast to rise to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Patchy residual smoke from agricultural burning activity in Mexico and Central America is forecast to persist across the eastern two-thirds of the state, out ahead of the aforementioned approaching cold front. Combined with persistent elevated relative humidity levels, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain at the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.