Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the El Paso and Waco-Killeen areas.

A plume of Saharan dust is expected to continue filtering over coastal regions of the state and expanding over portions of South Central, North Central, and Northeast Texas, as well as along the lower Rio Grande Valley, with the highest concentrations forecast to be over Southeast Texas. Very light amounts of dust could travel as far north as the South Plains and the Permian Basin, however the density over these regions of the state is expected to be low with any impacts on fine particulate concentrations at the surface to be minimal. Meanwhile, very minimal and light density residual smoke from wildfires in Southwestern Utah may be lingering over the Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and far West Texas, however these aerosols are expected to remain aloft in addition to weakening and dispersing, with very little to no impacts on surface concentrations. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Also, lighter daytime winds over North Central, Northeast, and Southeast Texas are expected to increase the effects of urban fine particulate matter over these regions as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Continued thunderstorm activity over far West Texas may produce periodic strong outflows and gusty winds during the afternoon, potentially causing PM2.5/PM10 levels to spike into the upper end of the "Moderate" range from blowing dust; however the intensities of the outflows and the density of the potential suspended dust are not expected to be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the "Moderate" range and are forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

An Ozone Action Day will be in effect on Wednesday for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the north side of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The plume of Saharan dust is expected to linger over the eastern two-thirds of the state, with the highest concentrations forecast to be over Southeast and East Texas and lighter amounts possibly reaching over the rest of the state, excluding far West Texas. The fine particulates over the western third of the state should remain mostly aloft. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Also, persistent, light daytime winds over North Central, Northeast, and Southeast Texas are expected to slightly raise urban fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, and Dallas-Fort Worth areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate" possible) for the majority of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Model guidance indicates that the plume of Saharan dust may slightly weaken over deep South Texas, South Central Texas, North Central Texas, and along the Rio Grande Valley, with heavier densities continuing to linger over the northern coastal bend of Texas, Southeast Texas, and Northeast Texas. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Also, persistent, light daytime winds over Northeast and Southeast Texas are expected to slightly raise urban fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds could be enough to keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate" possible) for the majority of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The plume of Saharan dust over East and Southeast Texas is forecast to continue weakening, however another light to moderately dense plume of Saharan dust is forecast to arrive over deep South Texas, along the southern coastal bend of Texas and begin moving inland. Meanwhile, locally heavy smoke from Independence Day fireworks and celebratory activities will be possible in spots across the state, particularly in more urban locations which may cause PM2.5 levels to spike into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" or even "Unhealthy" range at times. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute towards raising fine particulate matter too. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.