Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Slightly elevated fine particulate matter combined with light lingering moisture across portions of deep South Texas and areas immediately along the coastline may keep urban aerosols slightly elevated during the morning hours following the passing of a cold front yesterday. Breezy, northerly winds along with a drier airmass however are expected to keep these fine particulates to a minimum. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas. Meanwhile, a wildfire in the northern Texas Panhandle, named the Yellow Fire incident, is producing light to moderate density smoke. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to steer the aerosols away from the more urban areas of the region. Additionally, the breezy southwesterly winds may be enough to generate light density blowing dust across portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, however the intensity is not expected to be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 beyond the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the Amarillo and Lubbock areas.

Light daytime winds are slightly elevating urban fine particulate matter across portions of far West Texas this morning. These will hinder dispersion and allow pollutants to accumulate that could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, and Lubbock areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light morning winds and an overnight temperature inversion associated with a building area of high-pressure aloft may limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface across the more urban regions of the state, slightly enhancing fine particulate pollution. Meanwhile, depending on the amount of residual smoke from the Yellow Fire incident in the northern Texas Panhandle, shifting winds becoming northwesterly for part of the day may steer some of the fine particulate matter towards the more urban areas in the region. The density and coverage of the residual smoke however are not expected to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the Amarillo area. Additionally, depending on the amount of small, scattered controlled burning activities, mainly across portions of North Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains, light density residual smoke may be produced and filter over parts of these regions. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso and Houston areas and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Lubbock, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light morning winds may again limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface across the more urban regions of the state and depending on the amount of small, scattered controlled burning activities, mainly across portions of North Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains, light density residual smoke may continue to be produced and filter over parts of these regions. Meanwhile, should industrial and gas flaring activities along with burning activities across central and southern Mexico continue, light density smoke may filter back northward and expand over portions of deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly gusty afternoon and evening winds could generate and transport light density patchy blowing dust through portions of far West Texas. The intensity and duration of the possible blowing dust may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range through portions of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A very strong cold front is forecast to move through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, the Permian Basin, and North Central Texas during the day and possibly South Central, Northeast, and far West Texas overnight. Strong and breezy northerly associated with the cold front are expected to generate blowing dust, primarily across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and the Permian Basin with lighter densities possible across far West Texas. While fine particulate concentrations may spike at times to the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" or possibly even "Unhealthy" range, the density and duration of the blowing dust are forecast to only raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range for the majority of these regions, which includes the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and is forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo area as well.

Should small, scattered controlled burning activities across portions of North Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains continue, light density residual smoke may continue to filter over parts of these regions. Additionally, slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels from Gulf moisture over deep South Texas, the lower Rio Grande Valley, the Coastal Plains, and portions of Southeast and South Central Texas may promote fine particulate formation. Meanwhile, should industrial and gas flaring activities along with burning activities across central and southern Mexico continue, light density smoke may continue to filter and expand over deep South Texas and portions of the Coastal Plains. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.