Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas.

An area of light smoke has been observed this morning with an eastward trajectory, originating from Eastern Texas and tracking toward the Gulf. Meanwhile, a plume of light density smoke and aerosols was also seen affecting portions of South Texas and the coastal bend of Texas as the burning and industrial activity in Central Mexico persist. Slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter has resulted in isolated instances of fine particulate concentrations spiking into the "Moderate" range in the more populated regions, but a gradual increase in vertical mixing and chances for precipitation due to an advancing cold front will temper overall PM2.5 levels. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and in the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds and stable atmospheric conditions in far West Texas could result in the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, cool to warm temperatures, and insufficient afternoon sunshine could be enough to keep ozone in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Depending on the burning and industrial activity in Central Mexico, light residual smoke and aerosols could linger in portions of South and South Central Texas as well as the coastal bend of Texas. Additionally, urban fine particulate matter could be slightly elevated as light winds prevail across the eastern half of the state. However, while the combination of smoke and elevated relative humidity could occasionally spike PM2.5 concentrations into the "Moderate" range, an advancing cold front in Central Texas is forecast to produce scattered to widespread precipitation in the Central, East, and Southeast regions, providing sufficient pollutant dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Calm winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, and sufficient afternoon sunshine could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to be located just east of Texas as light to moderate westerly winds prevail across a large portion of the state during the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. A few small burnings in East/Northeast Texas could produce some localized light residual smoke in the immediate surrounding areas but model guidance suggests any effects on fine particulate concentrations will be minimal. Additionally, light winds in the eastern half of the state combined with lingering elevated relative humidity during the morning hours could occasionally spike PM2.5 levels into the "Moderate" range, however decreasing humidity later in the day will likely temper them overall. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and a stable atmosphere in far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, and sufficient afternoon sunshine could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas.

Model guidance suggests light residual smoke associated with scattered burning activity in East Texas and the Mississippi Valley could affect portions of North Central and East Texas Monday as a southward moving front facilitates advection into these regions. While fine particulate concentrations could increase into the "Moderate" range at times, the influx of drier air and increased wind speeds are expected to temper the overall PM2.5 levels. Meanwhile, lighter winds combined with slightly elevated relative humidity in the South and coastal areas of Texas could increase urban fine particulate levels, and depending on the burning and industrial activity in Mexico, additional light density smoke could also affect portions of deep South Texas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day in far West Texas could sustain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light residual smoke and aerosols could spread farther southward into the eastern two thirds of Texas as a cold front moves through the Central region, with a second cold front forecast to move into Northwest Texas Tuesday morning. While this smoke could occasionally increase fine particulate concentrations, PM2.5 levels are expected to remain tempered with increased vertical mixing anticipated to keep the smoke mostly aloft in addition to the drier air inhibiting pollutant build-up. Meanwhile, light to moderate winds, slightly elevated relative humidity, and possible light smoke associated with the burning and industrial activity in Mexico could elevate fine particulate levels in South Texas and along the coastal areas of Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Persistent light winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could result in the PM2.5/PM10 AQIs remaining in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.