Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

A cold front is currently stretching from the Permian Basin to North Central Texas this morning but is expected to stall across the Texas Hill Country this afternoon. Smoke from widespread fire activity and remnant smoke from previous days, as well as aerosol emissions from gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico, concentrated into a layer of light density smoke has extended from the east Mexican coast into deep South Texas as well as the coastal bend of Texas. While fine particulate levels have remained slightly elevated in Central and North Central Texas this morning, possible precipitation and breezy winds associated with the front could result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Meanwhile, industrial activity in the Permian Basin has kept fine particulate matter slightly elevated, but vertical mixing and possible precipitation could limit these increases the rest of the day. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds and stable atmospheric conditions could elevate urban fine particulate in far West Texas with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs reaching the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

With southerly winds expected to persist as the aforementioned front retreats northward out of the state, light density smoke and aerosols associated with burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico could continue affecting portions of deep South Texas as well as along the Southeast coast of Texas. With high relative humidity expected to remain in these regions, elevated fine particulate matter could persist. Farther north, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter could be observed during the morning hours but breezy winds as well as scattered precipitation will likely provide sufficient dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds could generate patchy blowing dust in far West Texas as well transporting dust out of northern Mexico into the region, with the daily PM10 AQI possibly reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area while the PM2.5 AQI reaches the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range. Additionally, with severe storms possible from the Panhandle to the Permian Basin, blowing dust will be possible with any stronger outflows that manage to develop, however the coverage and duration are not expected to increase the daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-0dessa areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Breezy southerly winds will continue to advect moisture out of the Gulf into the eastern two thirds of Texas ahead of a dry line that is forecast to extend from the Panhandle through the Permian Basin. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could be transported into deep South, South Central, and Southeast Texas, although transport farther north cannot be ruled out. Additionally, a few scattered burnings in East/Southeast Texas could also produce light density smoke that affects these regions as well as the areas downwind, north of this activity. While the combination of high relative humidity and residual smoke could result in elevated fine particulate matter, the breezy winds as well as scattered precipitations could provide sufficient dispersion that precludes widespread coverage. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Suspended dust kicked up the previous day could sustain elevated fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas although occasionally breezy winds could help with dispersion, particularly in the morning and early afternoon. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could net out in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

A cold front is forecast to reach Central Texas Saturday morning with southerly winds continuing to advect moisture out of the Gulf near and ahead of the boundary. Depending on the gas flaring and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosol emissions will likely continue to be transported into portions of South and Southeast Texas as well as South Central Texas. While the combination of high relative humidity and smoke could keep fine particulate matter elevated in the affected regions, vertical mixing, widespread precipitation, and breezy winds associated with the front is expected to provide sufficient dispersion, particularly in Central and South-Central Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty winds in far West Texas could produce occasional areas of patchy blowing dust but the coverage and duration are not expected to raise the PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.