Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A cold front associated with a low-pressure system in the Central Plains is in through Central Texas this morning, extending from the North Central region down through the Southwest region. Elevated relative humidity ahead of the front could slightly elevate fine particulate concentrations occasionally as convergence occurs near the boundary, but scattered precipitation ahead of it will likely result in sufficient dispersion. Additionally, the southerly winds south and east of the front are advecting light density smoke from burning and industrial activity in Central Mexico and has spread through South, Southeast, Central, and East Texas, slightly increasing fine particulate concentrations in these regions. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The overall PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Houston area as well.

Light winds and limited vertical mixing could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, with the overall daily PM2.5 AQI netting out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The cold front will stall over the South/South Central Texas Saturday morning and will keep higher relative humidity limited to the regions near and South of the boundary. Depending on the burning activity across Mexico, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast U.S., light density smoke could linger over the South region and extend across the coastal and Southeast regions of Texas. While scattered precipitation associated with the front could facilitate dispersion, the combination of smoke and rich moisture is forecast to result in sustained, elevated fine particulate matter concentrations. Additionally, light winds in Central and North Texas associated with high pressure in the Panhandle could occasionally elevate PM2.5 levels but the lack of higher relative humidity will likely keep them tempered overall. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, and Victoria areas.

Light winds could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, but possible evening precipitation could keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Depending on the burning activity in Mexico and the Southeastern U.S., light density smoke could linger across portions of South, Southeast, and coastal bend of Texas. Meanwhile, moisture advection will increase northward as incoming low pressure turns surface winds out of the south, creating an environment more conducive for fine particulate formation. Additionally, light winds in East/Northeast Texas could slightly increase the influence of urban fine particulate matter as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, but the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, scattered precipitation, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Depending on the burning activity in Mexico and the Southeastern U.S., light density smoke may continue affecting portions of South, Southeast, and coastal bend of Texas. A cold front associated with low pressure in the Central Plains will move through the state, making it to Central Texas by Monday morning. Moisture advection ahead of the boundary will keep relative humidity high in the eastern half of Texas but increasing winds and precipitation in Central and North Texas will facilitate pollutant dispersion in these regions and likely temper fine particulate concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and pollutant carryover from the previous day could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, but the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Moderate afternoon winds and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall late Tuesday morning, extending from the South region through the coastal and Southeast regions. North and west winds behind the front will transport cleaner, drier air into most of Texas, however, high relative humidity is expected to remain over deep South and Southeast Texas. South/southeast winds could continue advecting light density smoke from the burning and industrial activity in Central and Eastern Mexico into deep South Texas as well as along the coast, sustaining elevated fine particulate concentrations. Light surface winds in Central and North Texas could slightly increase urban fine particulate matter at times but the low relative humidity will preclude sustained, elevated PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds could increase urban fine particulate matter concentrations at times in far West Texas, but the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.