Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Cooler temperatures, insufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Weak surface high pressure is developing over the state following the passing of a cold front yesterday. Precipitation chances are expected to decrease across the state with the exception of Southeast Texas where they are expected to linger. Light daytime winds may allow local urban fine particulates to linger over the more urban areas of North Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, deep South Texas, the Coastal Plains, as well as the Permian Basin and at times raise PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to stay in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning surface winds combined with limited vertical mixing may keep urban fine particulate pollutants near the ground and not very well dispersed across portions of far West Texas. Even though afternoon conditions might become a little breezy and support some dispersion of the urban fine particulates, the daily PM2.5 AQI may still reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cooler temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A weak upper-level trough is forecast to move over the northern half of Texas however is not expected to have much weather associated with it. Persistent light daytime winds may support local urban fine particulates to slightly rise over the more urban areas of North Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, deep South Texas, as well as the Coastal Plains and at times raise PM2.5 levels to the "Moderate" range. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to stay in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria and Waco-Killeen areas. Meanwhile, newer model guidance suggests that gusty conditions associated with the upper-level trough may generate and transport patchy blowing dust through portions of the Permian Basin, primarily near Eddy County and areas near the Davis Mountains. While PM2.5/PM10 concentrations may spike into the "Moderate" or even "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range at times, the density and duration of the blowing dust is forecast to only raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range and the daily PM10 AQI to the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Midland-Odessa area.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light morning winds, limited vertical mixing, and lower dispersion capabilities of aerosols could be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Moderate winds, cooler temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

A dry cold front is forecast to arrive over the South Plains and move through the Permian Basin, North Central, South Central Texas and parts of Northeast and Southeast Texas by day's end bringing northerly winds behind the front. Light amounts of urban fine particulate matter may accumulate along and ahead of the approaching cold front that depending on the timing of the movement of the front, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

There is the possibility for pockets of low "Moderate" urban fine particulate concentrations for several hours across portions of far West Texas associated with light daytime winds and lower vertical mixing heights. Depending on their duration, these conditions may be enough for the daily PM2.5 AQI to remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cooler temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

High-pressure is forecast to begin building over the state following the passing of the aforementioned dry cold front. Light daytime winds are forecast to limit dispersion of urban fine particulate matter in parts of the more populated areas of the state. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Calm to light winds are forecast to hinder dispersion of urban fine particulate matter over portions of far West Texas that may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Cooler temperatures and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

The aforementioned high-pressure system is forecast to continue influencing the weather over Texas and produce light daytime winds for much of the state. These conditions will limit dispersion of urban fine particulate matter for parts of the more populated areas of the state and slightly elevate PM2.5 levels. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds and limited vertical mixing over portions of far West Texas may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.