Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

The small, scattered burning activities across portions of Central and East Texas have continued, producing light density residual smoke aerosols combined with some light urban fine particulate matter and slightly elevated morning relative humidity levels, keeping the PM2.5 levels slightly elevated over portions of these regions of Texas. Gusty afternoon winds, however, should help with dispersion of these fine particulates. Meanwhile, southerly winds have also continued to steer light density residual smoke and fine particulate aerosols from ongoing burning and industrial activities across central and southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche over deep South Texas and could transport into the Coastal Plains later today. Additionally, industrial activity in the Permian Basin and South Plains has resulted in sustained slightly elevated fine particulate matter that could continue across these regions due to light to moderate winds and slightly elevated relative humidity. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Midland-Odessa, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light morning winds could keep urban fine particulate matter slightly elevated earlier in the day but increasing winds in far West Texas could be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs from increasing beyond the lower end of the "Moderate" range for most of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

A cold front will enter northwest Texas Wednesday morning but will stall across the Texas Hill Country and Central Texas during the afternoon hours. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, southerly winds could advect it into portions of deep South Texas and along the coastal bend, and when combined with elevated relative humidity could slightly increase fine particulate concentrations in the affected areas. While fine particulate levels could remain slightly elevated in Central and North Central Texas during the morning hours, precipitation and breezy winds associated with the front will likely result in sufficient pollutant dispersion. Meanwhile, depending on the industrial activity in the Permian Basin, slightly elevated fine particulate matter could persist, but vertical mixing and possible precipitation could limit these increases. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light to moderate winds and stable atmospheric conditions could elevate urban fine particulate in far West Texas with the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs reaching the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine, gusty winds, and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

With southerly winds expected to persist as the aforementioned front retreats northward out of the state, light density smoke and aerosols associated with burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico could continue affecting portions of deep South Texas as well as along the Southeast coast of Texas. With high relative humidity expected to remain in these regions, elevated fine particulate matter could persist. Farther north, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter could be observed during the morning hours but breezy winds as well as scattered precipitation will likely provide sufficient dispersion. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds could generate patchy blowing dust in far West Texas, with the daily PM10 AQI possibly reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area while the PM2.5 AQI reaches the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range. Additionally, with severe storms possible from the Panhandle to the Permian Basin, blowing dust will be possible with any stronger outflows that manage to develop, however the coverage and duration are not expected to increase the daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-0dessa areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated lingering background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Breezy southerly winds will continue to advect moisture out of the Gulf into the eastern two thirds of Texas ahead of a dry line that is forecast to extend from the Panhandle through the Permian Basin. Depending on the burning and industrial activity in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could be transported into deep South, South Central, and Southeast Texas, although transport farther north cannot be ruled out. Additionally, a few scattered burnings in East/Southeast Texas could also produce light density smoke that affects these regions as well as the areas downwind, north of this activity. While the combination of high relative humidity and residual smoke could result in elevated fine particulate matter, the breezy winds as well as scattered precipitations could provide sufficient dispersion that precludes widespread coverage. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may remain at the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Suspended dust kicked up the previous day could sustain elevated fine particulate concentrations in far West Texas although occasionally breezy winds could help with dispersion, particularly in the morning and early afternoon. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could net out in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.