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Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

The latest forecast for air quality conditions in Texas' metropolitan areas.

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February 14, 2025

Forecast is for Ozone, PM2.5, & PM10, and is based on EPA's Air Quality Index (AQI)

Forecast Region
(Click name for AIRNOW version)
Fri
02/14/2025
Sat
02/15/2025
Sun
02/16/2025
Mon
02/17/2025
Tue
02/18/2025
Amarillo Good Good Good Good Good
Austin PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good Good
Beaumont-Port Arthur PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Big Bend Good Good Good Good Good
Brownsville-McAllen Good PM2.5 Good PM2.5 PM2.5
Bryan-College Station PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Corpus Christi PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Dallas-Fort Worth PM2.5 Good Good Good Good
El Paso PM2.5^/PM10^ PM2.5/PM10 PM2.5/PM10 PM2.5/PM10 PM2.5/PM10
Houston PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Laredo Good PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Lubbock Good Good Good Good Good
Midland-Odessa Good PM2.5 Good Good Good
San Antonio PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Tyler-Longview Good Good Good Good Good
Victoria PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good PM2.5
Waco-Killeen PM2.5 PM2.5 Good Good Good
An asterisk (*) indicates that an Ozone Action Day is or will be in effect for the indicated region.
A caret (^) indicates that levels of PM may exceed the applicable short-term NAAQS. For more information see the following TCEQ websites:Air Pollution from Particulate Matter and Voluntary Tips for Citizens and Business to Reduce Emissions.

Forecast Discussion

Southerly to easterly winds will dominate much of the state with the exception of the Coastal Plains and deep South Texas with winds staying out of the north. Light morning winds and/or low morning cloud cover along with lingering continental haze is promoting particle formation and periodically raising urban fine particulate levels across portions of North Central, Northeast, Southeast, South Central, and deep South Texas. Model guidance indicates that isolated agricultural burning activity in southwest Louisiana may be producing light residual smoke that is filtering over portions of Southeast Texas that may also contribute towards slightly raising fine particulate levels. Depending on the duration of the slightly elevated PM2.5 levels, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and should remain in the "Good" range for most of the Brownsville-McAllen, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Breezy afternoon and evening winds through the Texas Panhandle, far West Texas, and portions of the Permian Basin may generate and transport patchy blowing dust through these regions. More dense suspended dust is expected through far West Texas than the Texas Panhandle and the Permian Basin. Newer model guidance suggests that PM2.5/PM10 levels may possibly spike at times into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range or higher through portions of far West Texas. Depending on the intensity and coverage of the dust, these may be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area and should stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Depending on the amount of ongoing scattered agricultural burnings, industrial activities, and volcanic emissions throughout Central and Southern Mexico as well as the Bay of Campeche, southerly winds may transport light residual smoke and aerosols back northward over portions of deep South Texas, the southern coastal bend of Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley region. Additionally, slightly elevated relative humidity levels, light morning winds, and/or patchy morning fog may promote particle formation over coastal regions as well as portions of Southeast, South Central, North Central, and Northeast Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and should stay in the "Good" range for most of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Tyler-Longview areas.

A cold front is forecast to move through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, far West Texas, and the Permian Basin, generating breezy conditions. These slightly elevated winds and lingering suspended dust from the previous day could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to push through the rest of the state, bringing another round of dry air, breezy northerly winds, and/or sunnier skies to most of Texas. Fine particulate levels attributed to light residual smoke/aerosols and/or slightly elevated relative humidity levels are expected to improve, however continental haze may periodically raise PM2.5 levels across the more urban areas of North Central, South Central, and Southeast Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light and variable winds as well as limited morning vertical mixing over far West Texas could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area. The daily PM10 AQI may also reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Southerly winds are expected to return across the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas with winds staying out of the west. The southerly winds will transport a slightly more moist airmass over coastal regions and may help with particle formation, slightly raising fine particulate background levels. Lingering continental haze over the more urban areas of North Central, South Central, and Southeast Texas may periodically raise PM2.5 levels as well, however is not expected to keep them elevated over the long term. Additionally, depending on the amount of scattered agricultural burnings, industrial activities, and volcanic emissions throughout Central/Southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, light residual smoke and aerosols may expand and filter back northward over portions of deep South Texas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and should remain in the "Good" range for most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing may increase the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

A strong arctic cold front is forecast to move through the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, the Permian Basin, North Central Texas, and part of Northeast Texas bringing very cold temperatures across these regions. Gusty northerly winds may generate and transport patchy blowing dust across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin slightly elevating PM2.5/PM10 levels, however the density and coverage of any blowing dust are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs beyond the "Good" range throughout the majority of these regions, which includes the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. Possible wintery precipitation should also help keep slightly elevated fine particulate matter tempered too. Gusty westerly winds across far West Texas, out ahead of the frontal boundary, may also generate and transport patchy blowing dust across this region of the state that might be enough to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light amounts of residual smoke from possibly ongoing scattered agricultural burnings, industrial activities, and volcanic emissions throughout Central/Southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche may continue to filter over portions of deep South Texas, the southern coastal bend of Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley region. Combined with increasing relative humidity levels, promoting particle formation, these could enhance fine particulate background levels over Southeast Texas, South Central Texas, and coastal regions of the state, out ahead of the strong, arctic cold front. While scattered showers over these regions may help wash out some of the fine particulate aerosols, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may still rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas and should stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

This forecast was last updated at 10:35 AM on Friday, February 14th, and is updated daily on normal TCEQ workdays and may also be updated on weekends or holidays when air pollution levels are high. Regardless of our forecast, we always recommend that each individual determine what level of activity they should conduct based on the actual local conditions. See the "Related Current Data" links below to monitor the latest actual conditions.

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