Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

An Ozone Action Day is in effect today for the El Paso area. Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west side of the El Paso area; the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend and Dallas-Fort Worth areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The fine particulate matter associated with the residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the Pacific Northwest, that are primarily over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Big Bend region, far West Texas, and portions of North Central Texas, will start to disperse and weaken, however some light amounts are still being observed at the surface. Meanwhile, a light density plume of Saharan dust is filtering and expanding over portions of Texas south and east of a line from Del Rio to Fort Worth, with the heaviest concentrations over deep South Texas and Southeast Texas. Additionally, persistent light morning winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels are expected to continue to slightly elevate fine particulate background levels in more urban areas of the state. Depending on the coverage and intensity of scattered showers across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend, Laredo, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) on the west and south sides of the El Paso area and in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Lighter density fine particulate matter associated with the residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the Pacific Northwest are expected over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Big Bend region, far West Texas, and North Central Texas than previous days with very little expected at the surface. Meanwhile, depending on the coverage of the Saharan dust plume, model guidance suggests that it will continue moving inland over more of South Central Texas, North Central Texas, and possibly the Permian Basin while lingering in low concentrations over the rest of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Additionally, persistent light morning winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels may continue to slightly elevate fine particulate background levels mainly in more urban areas for the eastern two-thirds of the state. While scattered showers across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state will help wash out some of the fine particulates, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo and Big Bend areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Lubbock area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The majority of any fine particulate matter over the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Big Bend region, and far West Texas associated with the residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities across Canada as well as the Pacific Northwest are expected to remain aloft. Meanwhile, the Saharan dust plume is expected to disperse and weaken across the rest of the state and effect PM2.5 concentrations very little for most areas. Meanwhile, light morning winds and/or slightly higher relative humidity levels than previous days may contribute a little more fine particulate background levels in parts of more urban areas for the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas. Depending on the coverage and intensity of scattered showers across portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, which will help wash out some of the fine particulates, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Dallas-Fort Worth areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The leading edge of a moderate to highly dense plume of Saharan dust is expected to arrive over portions of deep South Texas as well as other parts along the Texas coastline. Additionally, light morning winds and/or elevated relative humidity levels are expected to continue contributing fine particulate background levels in parts of more urban areas for the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as far West Texas. Overall, depending on the coverage and intensity of the arriving Saharan dust, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and El Paso areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Laredo area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm to hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

The lighter to moderate density portion of a heavily dense plume of Saharan dust will continue spreading inland through Texas, possibly impacting spots at varying intensities generally along and east of a line from Laredo to Dallas, with the highest concentrations remaining along the Texas coastline and out over the western Gulf of Mexico still. Overall, depending on the movement and intensity of the dust, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Victoria areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light winds could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range and the daily PM10 AQI to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the El Paso area.