Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area.

Low pressure is in Northwest Texas this morning as a stationary front is extending through the South Plains and across North Central Texas. Moisture advection due to southerly winds will keep relative humidity slightly elevated in the eastern two thirds of the state, possibly assisting in increasing urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas as light to moderate winds prevail. Depending on burning activity across Central, East, and Southeast Texas, light density smoke and aerosols could contribute fine particulate matter to the immediate surrounding areas as well as those downwind. With the burning and industrial activity in southern Mexico persisting, light density smoke and aerosols will continue affecting portions of South Texas and the coastal bend. Additionally, industrial activity in the Permian Basin could increase fine particulate matter into the "Moderate" range at times, although they are not expected to be sustained throughout the entire day. As a developing upper low over the Southwest CONUS approaches Texas, vertical mixing, precipitation, and breezy winds will gradually spread from west to east across the state and could promote pollutant dispersion during the evening hours. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of "Good" range (possibly with an isolated low "Moderate") in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, and San Antonio areas.

Light morning winds could keep urban fine particulate concentrations elevated at times earlier in the day but increasing winds, vertical mixing, and chances for precipitation in far West Texas are forecast to provide sufficient dispersion. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are expected to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

High relative humidity could keep fine particulate concentrations slightly elevated during the morning hours as southerly winds continue to advect moisture out of the Gulf. However, a strengthening cold front will facilitate widespread precipitation through most of Texas except the deep South region. Depending on the burning activity and gas flaring in southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could continue to be transported into deep South Texas and along the coastal bend, although modest dispersion due to increased vertical mixing will be possible due to the passing front. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

A more stable atmosphere in far West Texas will make conditions more favorable for fine particulate build-up as light evening winds are expected, however the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Northerly winds behind the cold front that passed through the previous day will advect drier air into Texas as sunny skies spread across most of the state. While more stable conditions could occasionally elevate urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas, breezy winds in the eastern two thirds of the state will likely result in sufficient dispersion. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to remain firmly in the "Good" range in most areas statewide.

Light winds and stable atmospheric conditions in far West Texas could increase urban fine particulate concentrations, but the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in a majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas.

Weak high pressure is forecast to be positioned over South Central Texas as north-northeast winds prevail over the eastern half of Texas. Model guidance suggests seasonal burning activity will be possible across portions of Central and East Texas, producing light density smoke and aerosols during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, light winds could increase urban fine particulate concentrations in the more populated areas as a large wind shift promotes re-circulation; however, the lack of better moisture will likely preclude widespread elevated PM2.5 levels. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and stable atmospheric conditions in far West Texas will slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter at times as dispersion is limited, but the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Insufficient afternoon sunshine and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the state.

Depending on the burning and industrial activity in southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosols could be transported in deep South Texas as well as the coastal bend of Texas. Additionally, depending on the seasonal burnings in Central and East Texas, light density smoke could continue affecting these regions, however breezy winds could limit these effects as dispersion is improved. Gusty winds associated with a cold front that is expected to enter West Texas during the afternoon hours and will produce areas of blowing dust across the western third of the state, with additional blowing dust also being transported eastward out of eastern New Mexico. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen ares. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.