Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Insufficient afternoon sunshine and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough to keep ozone levels in the "Good" range for the majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, and Houston areas.

A light to moderate density plume of Saharan dust is forecast to filter over coastal regions of the state and expand over portions of South Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and along the lower Rio Grande Valley, with the highest concentrations expected to be over Southeast Texas. Meanwhile, very light residual smoke from wildfires in Southwestern Utah may spread over portions of the Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and far West Texas, however the majority of the smoke should remain aloft. Additionally, moisture advection out of the Gulf will assist in elevating fine particulate matter mainly across the eastern two-thirds of the state, and especially over the more urban portions of the regions. While precipitation over parts of deep South Texas and the southern coastal bend of Texas may help wash out some of the fine particulate matter, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and San Antonio areas as well.

Thunderstorms across far West Texas may produce periodic strong outflows and gusty winds that depending on their intensities, could generate blowing dust through portions of the region. While these may occasionally cause PM2.5/PM10 levels to spike into the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" or even the "Unhealthy" range at times, the overall daily PM2.5 and PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the El Paso and Waco-Killeen areas.

The plume of Saharan dust is forecast to continue filtering over coastal regions of the state and lingering over portions of South Central, North Central, and Northeast Texas, as well as along the lower Rio Grande Valley, with the highest concentrations again forecast to be over Southeast Texas. Very light amounts of dust could travel as far north as the South Plains and the Permian Basin, however the density over these regions of the state is expected to be low with any impacts on fine particulate concentrations at the surface to be minimal. Any lingering, light density residual smoke from wildfires in Southwestern Utah over the Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and far West Texas is expected to remain aloft and continue weakening and dispersing, with very little to no impacts on surface concentrations. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Additionally, lighter daytime winds over North Central, Northeast, and Southeast Texas are expected to increase the effects of urban fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Continued thunderstorm activity over far West Texas may again produce periodic strong outflows and gusty winds, potentially causing PM2.5/PM10 levels to spike into the "Moderate" or "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range; however the intensities of the outflows are not expected to be enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the "Moderate" range and are forecast to net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Model guidance suggests the plume of Saharan dust will linger over the eastern two-thirds of the state, with the highest concentrations forecast to be over Southeast and East Texas and lighter amounts possibly reaching over the rest of the state, excluding far West Texas. The fine particulates over the western third of the state should remain mostly aloft. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Also, persistent, light daytime winds over North Central, Northeast, and Southeast Texas are expected to slightly raise urban fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and San Antonio areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, and Dallas-Fort Worth areas as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light daytime winds could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Model guidance indicates that the plume of Saharan dust may slightly weaken over deep South Texas, South Central Texas, North Central Texas, and along the Rio Grande Valley, with heavier densities continuing to linger over the northern coastal bend of Texas, Southeast Texas, and Northeast Texas. Meanwhile, elevated relative humidity levels will continue across the majority of the state and may contribute slightly towards raising fine particulate matter. Also, persistent, light daytime winds over Northeast and Southeast Texas are expected to slightly raise urban fine particulate matter as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Fine urban particulate levels owing to limited dispersion from light daytime winds could be enough to keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.