Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Moderate winds, widespread precipitation and cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels should be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for most areas statewide.

An upper-level disturbance will continue producing widespread precipitation through most of the state today, with the lowest probabilities forecast for deep South Texas. Light density smoke and aerosols associated with burning activity in southern Mexico and Central America are lingering near a boundary that will remain stalled across the deep South and coastal bend regions of Texas, but vertical mixing and precipitation could facilitate better dispersion this afternoon and evening. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Corpus Christi areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated relative humidity could occasionally elevate urban fine particulate matter in far West Texas, but breezy winds and possible precipitation are forecast to keep the daily PM2.5 AQI in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Quieter weather will come to Texas on Saturday as a cold front exits the deep South region during the early morning hours. Slightly elevated fine particulate matter could linger in South Texas as the boundary pushes out of the state, but breezy winds combined with significantly less relative humidity are likely to result in the daily PM2.5 AQI remaining in the "Good" range across most regions. Light evening winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could gradually increase urban fine particulate matter concentrations, however, the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area, the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Waco-Killeen area.

High pressure will move into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday morning, causing surface winds to gradually turn out of the south by the late morning hours. Light winds in the eastern half of the state could increase urban fine particulate concentrations in the more populated areas but the lack of better moisture will likely preclude widespread increases in PM2.5 levels. Lighter winds in far West Texas could promote build-up of urban fine particulate matter and when combined with slightly elevated relative humidity, increase PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, El Paso, and Houston areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco-Killeen areas.

Southerly winds will persist across the eastern two thirds of Texas as surface high pressure lingers in the northern Gulf/lower Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection northward could be accompanied by smoke and aerosols from burnings in southern Mexico and Central America, possibly spreading into the South region and Coastal Plains of Texas, increasing fine particulate matter concentrations as the day progresses. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Gusty afternoon and evening winds in far West Texas could produce patchy blowing dust at times, and depending on the intensity and duration, could increase the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs into the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light to moderate winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or slightly elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Southerly winds east of a dryline extending from North Central Texas down through the eastern Permian Basin/western Hill Country will pump even more moisture northward out of the Gulf in addition to any smoke/aerosols being transported from burnings across Mexico and Central America. Breezy winds could increase dispersion at times, but the copious amounts of moisture and possible aerosols will likely sustain elevated fine particulate matter, particularly in the more populated regions. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Laredo areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Gusty winds west of the dryline could produce areas of blowing dust in the far West, Permian Basin, and South Plains regions of Texas as wind speeds increase during the afternoon and evening hours. The intensity and duration of any blowing dust could be tempered, limiting the effects on fine particulate concentrations. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.