Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Gusty winds and/or lower incoming background levels are forecast to be enough for ozone to stay in the "Good" range for the majority of areas statewide.

Following the passing of a strong cold front yesterday, lingering suspended blowing dust generated the previous day over the U.S. Central Plains and Texas Panhandle, South Plains, the Permian Basin, and far West Texas kept fine particulate matter elevated earlier this morning but has since dissipated as breezy winds have promoted dispersion. Meanwhile, fires in north/northwest Texas and central Oklahoma have continued to generate large plumes of light smoke that have drifted south and dispersed into a larger area of light smoke spreading across the state. However, breezy northerly winds have significantly reduced relative humidity while sufficiently dispersing any smoke that remained at the surface, mitigating the effects on PM2.5 concentrations. Smoke from fire activity, remnant smoke from previous days, and aerosol emissions from gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico has grown into a large area of smoke, with light density plumes extending into portions of South, South Central, and Southeast Texas. PM2.5 and PM10 levels remain elevated over deep South Texas but are expected to gradually reduce as breezy northerly winds facilitate better dispersion. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas.

Elevated urban fine particulate matter as well as lingering suspended dust kicked up the previous day are anticipated to keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area, although breezy afternoon winds could assist in dispersion at times.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Houston area, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

High-pressure is forecast to move over Eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley and might produce light morning winds and lower vertical mixing heights. Additionally, lingering light density smoke due to the burnings in central/southern Oklahoma could slightly elevate fine particulate matter during the morning hours in North Central Texas, but breezy winds turning out of south will likely steer it out of the region the remainder of the day. These conditions may allow urban fine particulate matter to slightly rise over the more populated areas of the eastern two-thirds of the state as well as portions of far West Texas, however breezy afternoon/evening winds and the lack of higher relative humidity are forecast to temper PM2.5/PM10 levels in most areas. The overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs could rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the "Good" range (perhaps with an isolated low "Moderate") in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosol emissions could be transported into portions of South Texas as well as the coastal areas of Texas. While moisture transport northward is forecast to slowly increase, slightly elevated relative humidity is expected to be primarily limited to the southernmost regions. Modestly breezy conditions in Central and North Central Texas and a lack of better moisture will keep fine particulate concentrations slightly elevated at best. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Houston areas and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light, variable winds and limited vertical mixing in far West Texas could keep the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Laredo, Lubbock, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Depending on the gas flaring and other industrial activities in central and southern Mexico, light density smoke and aerosol emissions could continue affecting the South and coastal regions of Texas but may spread farther inland to portions of South Central/Central Texas. Slightly higher relative humidity is also likely to move father northward into the eastern two thirds of Texas while lighter winds slightly increase urban fine particulate matter in the more populated areas. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, and Tyler-Longview areas and remain in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Elevated urban fine particulate matter is expected in far West Texas as light winds and a stable atmosphere inhibit pollutant dispersion. The daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to net out in the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.