Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Ozone Action Days are in effect today for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas. Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range on the west to north sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, and San Antonio areas; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Bryan-College Station, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Victoria areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Amarillo, Brownsville-McAllen, Laredo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A combination of light density residual smoke attributed to scattered burning activities across portions of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas as well as parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeastern CONUS will linger and filter over the eastern two-thirds of the state. Meanwhile, slightly increased urban fine particulate background levels associated mainly with local contributions from light daytime winds may also slightly elevate PM2.5 levels across portions of North Central, East, Southeast, and South Central Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen and Laredo areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Corpus Christi, Midland-Odessa, and San Antonio areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Light density residual smoke is expected to continue lingering over the eastern two-thirds of the state associated with scattered burning activities across portions of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas as well as parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeastern CONUS lingering and filtering over the state. Additionally, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter associated with light morning winds could also affect portions of the eastern half of Texas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Corpus Christi, El Paso, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance suggests that while light density residual smoke may linger over the eastern two-thirds of the state attributed to scattered burning activities across portions of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas as well as parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeastern CONUS, some of the fine particulates may begin to slightly dissipate and weaken over the Coastal Plains and lower Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter associated with light morning winds could continue to possibly impact portions of the eastern half of Texas too. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Victoria areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light daytime winds and limited morning vertical mixing could raise PM2.5/PM10 levels to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region periodically throughout the day, however the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs are forecast to remain in the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Corpus Christi, El Paso, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance indicates that a surface high-pressure system may develop over the Southeast CONUS, possibly continue to steer light density residual smoke over Southeast and East Texas, should the scattered burning activities across portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeastern CONUS continue. Additionally, should the scattered burning activities across parts of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas also continue, these sources could continue to produce light density residual smoke and filter over these regions of the state as well as South Central Texas and the Coastal Plains. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter associated with light daytime winds could continue to contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of East, Southeast, South Central, and North Central Texas too. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and Victoria areas.

Limited daytime ventilation due to light/variable winds and limited vertical mixing over portions of far West Texas may allow urban fine particulate PM2.5/PM10 levels to increase to the lower end of the "Moderate" range at times during the day. These conditions may be enough for the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to remain in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in a majority of the Austin, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance indicates that the aforementioned surface high-pressure system will remain over the Southeast CONUS, possibly continue to push light density residual smoke over Southeast and East Texas associated with the potentially ongoing scattered burning activities across portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeastern CONUS. Additionally, should the scattered burning activities across parts of East, Southeast, and North Central Texas also continue, these sources could continue to produce light density residual smoke and filter over these regions of the state as well as South Central Texas and the Coastal Plains. Meanwhile, slightly elevated urban fine particulate matter associated with light daytime winds could continue to contribute towards raising PM2.5 levels across portions of East, Southeast, South Central, and North Central Texas as well. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, and Victoria areas.

Particulate PM2.5/PM10 levels could rise to the "Moderate" range due to light daytime winds and limited atmospheric mixing possibly contributing to this. These conditions may last long enough to keep the overall daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the region, which includes the El Paso area.